Areas of Highest Concern

Reason for Concern

Following a very severe drought in eastern Ethiopia, more people will need food assistance over the coming year than at any time in the past 10 years.

Current Observations

Seasonal forecasts suggest June to September Kiremt rainfall is likely to be average or above average in most areas. 

Reason for Concern

Boko Haram conflict continues to contribute to large-scale population displacement, limit market activity, and restrict normal livelihoods.

Current Observations

Data from recent rapid assessments suggests very high levels of food insecurity amongst certain IDP populations in the northeast.

Reason for Concern

Conflict continues to disrupt trade, humanitarian access, and livelihoods in the Greater Upper Nile States.

Current Observations

Food security has deteriorated to Emergency (IPC Phase 4) in Northern Bahr el Ghazal.

Reason for Concern

The extensive conflict has reduced incomes, and food prices remain elevated. Food access is inadequate for many poor households.

Current Observations

2.8 million IDPs identified in May by the Task Force on Population Movement.

Other Areas of Concern

Reason for Concern

The 2015/16 El Niño led to drought across much of the region. This marks a second consecutive poor production year for many areas.

Current Observations

The number of people across the region in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) is expected to continue to increase through 2016.

Reason for Concern

Extended drought associated with the 2015/16 El Niño resulted in consecutive below-average agricultural seasons, reduced labor demand, and continuing high staple food prices.

Current Observations

Since mid-May, rainfall has increased significantly in many areas of northern Haiti.

Reason for Concern

The 2016 lean season will be more severe than usual, due to limited 2015 staple harvests for small producers, and the ongoing impact of coffee rust in some areas.

Current Observations

Primera season rainfall typically begins in May, and staple harvests from the 2016 Primera season beginning in August will be crucial to mitigate ongoing food insecurity.

Reason for Concern

Very poor seasonal performance in western and El Niño-affected eastern areas has driven below-average national production and very large pasture deficits. 

Current Observations

Seasonal forecasts suggest main season rainfall between June and September is likely to be average to above average in many areas.

Reason for Concern

Poor production in the eastern and central Sahel zone and insecurity around Lake Chad is reducing food access and availability in 2016.

Current Observations

Poor Sahelian pastoral conditions have decreased livestock prices, reduced pastoralists’ revenue and terms of trade, and created food consumption deficits.

Areas of Highest Concern

Country or Region Reason for Concern Current Observations
Ethiopia

Following a very severe drought in eastern Ethiopia, more people will need food assistance over the coming year than at any time in the past 10 years.

Seasonal forecasts suggest June to September Kiremt rainfall is likely to be average or above average in most areas. 

Nigeria

Boko Haram conflict continues to contribute to large-scale population displacement, limit market activity, and restrict normal livelihoods.

Data from recent rapid assessments suggests very high levels of food insecurity amongst certain IDP populations in the northeast.

South Sudan

Conflict continues to disrupt trade, humanitarian access, and livelihoods in the Greater Upper Nile States.

Food security has deteriorated to Emergency (IPC Phase 4) in Northern Bahr el Ghazal.

Yemen

The extensive conflict has reduced incomes, and food prices remain elevated. Food access is inadequate for many poor households.

2.8 million IDPs identified in May by the Task Force on Population Movement.

Other Areas of Concern

Country or Region Reason for Concern Current Observations
Southern Africa

The 2015/16 El Niño led to drought across much of the region. This marks a second consecutive poor production year for many areas.

The number of people across the region in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) is expected to continue to increase through 2016.

Haiti

Extended drought associated with the 2015/16 El Niño resulted in consecutive below-average agricultural seasons, reduced labor demand, and continuing high staple food prices.

Since mid-May, rainfall has increased significantly in many areas of northern Haiti.

Central America

The 2016 lean season will be more severe than usual, due to limited 2015 staple harvests for small producers, and the ongoing impact of coffee rust in some areas.

Primera season rainfall typically begins in May, and staple harvests from the 2016 Primera season beginning in August will be crucial to mitigate ongoing food insecurity.

Sudan

Very poor seasonal performance in western and El Niño-affected eastern areas has driven below-average national production and very large pasture deficits. 

Seasonal forecasts suggest main season rainfall between June and September is likely to be average to above average in many areas.

Chad

Poor production in the eastern and central Sahel zone and insecurity around Lake Chad is reducing food access and availability in 2016.

Poor Sahelian pastoral conditions have decreased livestock prices, reduced pastoralists’ revenue and terms of trade, and created food consumption deficits.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 35 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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