Areas of Highest Concern

Reason for Concern

Conflict has severely disrupted trade, humanitarian access, and livelihoods. Very poor macroeconomic conditions constrain household market access.

Current Observations

Heavy fighting in Leer in late November forced an unknown number of civilians to flee the UN protection site in Leer town.  

Reason for Concern

Boko Haram conflict continues to cause major disruption to livelihoods in the northeast. Large populations remain heavily dependent on humanitarian assistance for food access, the majority of whom are in Borno State.

Current Observations

Main season staple harvests in the northeast are far below average and very limited in broad areas. Staple food prices remain 150 – 200 percent above prices of two years ago.

Reason for Concern

The extensive conflict has reduced incomes, and food prices remain elevated. Food access is inadequate for many poor households.

Current Observations

Imports continue through Aden, and a humanitarian aid ship docked in Al Hudaydah on November 26. Additional imports are needed through Red Sea ports in order to assure sufficient supplies of essential commodities. 

Reason for Concern

The April to June 2017 gu season was well below average and the 2017 October to December deyr season is forecast to be below-average. This follows large rainfall deficits in 2016 for both gu and deyr seasons.

Current Observations

Rainfall in early November in most areas of central and southern Somalia helped ease early season deficits, though total seasonal rainfall to date is still 30 percent or more below average.

Reason for Concern

Severe drought over the past year has resulted in very large livestock losses in Ethiopia’s Somali Region, which has sharply reduced household food and income access.

Current Observations

Deyr/Hagaya seasonal rainfall between October 1 and November 10 was greater than 120 percent of average across large areas of southeastern Ethiopia, according to preliminary CHIRPS rainfall estimates.

Other Areas of Concern

Reason for Concern

The 2017 long rains marked the second consecutive season of drought across the majority of Kenya’s pastoral and marginal agricultural areas, which affected livestock productivity and crop production.

Current Observations

During the week of November 21, which is typically at the height of the short rains season, there was suppressed rainfall over northern Kenya, and a strengthening of rainfall deficits in the southeast.

Reason for Concern

Ongoing conflict in the Kasai region since August 2016 has caused ongoing displacement and affected households’ abilities to access their livelihoods.

Current Observations

The size of the displaced population from the Kasai region has decreased to less than 1 million people, due to over 710,000 returnees to the region. 

Reason for Concern

Widespread conflict, poor rainfed staple production, and weak casual labor markets are the primary drivers of acute food insecurity, which is expected to be more extensive in early 2018 than during the previous lean season.

Current Observations

Cumulative precipitation for the ongoing wet season through May 2018 is expected to be below-average to average. However, timing and frequency of spring rainfall is likely to be a major determinant of 2018 staple harvest outcomes.

Areas of Highest Concern

Country or Region Reason for Concern Current Observations
South Sudan

Conflict has severely disrupted trade, humanitarian access, and livelihoods. Very poor macroeconomic conditions constrain household market access.

Heavy fighting in Leer in late November forced an unknown number of civilians to flee the UN protection site in Leer town.  

Nigeria

Boko Haram conflict continues to cause major disruption to livelihoods in the northeast. Large populations remain heavily dependent on humanitarian assistance for food access, the majority of whom are in Borno State.

Main season staple harvests in the northeast are far below average and very limited in broad areas. Staple food prices remain 150 – 200 percent above prices of two years ago.

Yemen

The extensive conflict has reduced incomes, and food prices remain elevated. Food access is inadequate for many poor households.

Imports continue through Aden, and a humanitarian aid ship docked in Al Hudaydah on November 26. Additional imports are needed through Red Sea ports in order to assure sufficient supplies of essential commodities. 

Somalia

The April to June 2017 gu season was well below average and the 2017 October to December deyr season is forecast to be below-average. This follows large rainfall deficits in 2016 for both gu and deyr seasons.

Rainfall in early November in most areas of central and southern Somalia helped ease early season deficits, though total seasonal rainfall to date is still 30 percent or more below average.

Ethiopia

Severe drought over the past year has resulted in very large livestock losses in Ethiopia’s Somali Region, which has sharply reduced household food and income access.

Deyr/Hagaya seasonal rainfall between October 1 and November 10 was greater than 120 percent of average across large areas of southeastern Ethiopia, according to preliminary CHIRPS rainfall estimates.

Other Areas of Concern

Country or Region Reason for Concern Current Observations
Kenya

The 2017 long rains marked the second consecutive season of drought across the majority of Kenya’s pastoral and marginal agricultural areas, which affected livestock productivity and crop production.

During the week of November 21, which is typically at the height of the short rains season, there was suppressed rainfall over northern Kenya, and a strengthening of rainfall deficits in the southeast.

DRC

Ongoing conflict in the Kasai region since August 2016 has caused ongoing displacement and affected households’ abilities to access their livelihoods.

The size of the displaced population from the Kasai region has decreased to less than 1 million people, due to over 710,000 returnees to the region. 

Afghanistan

Widespread conflict, poor rainfed staple production, and weak casual labor markets are the primary drivers of acute food insecurity, which is expected to be more extensive in early 2018 than during the previous lean season.

Cumulative precipitation for the ongoing wet season through May 2018 is expected to be below-average to average. However, timing and frequency of spring rainfall is likely to be a major determinant of 2018 staple harvest outcomes.

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About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 34 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.