Areas of Highest Concern

Reason for Concern

Conflict has severely disrupted trade, humanitarian access, and livelihoods. Very poor macroeconomic conditions constrain household market access.

Current Observations

Recent assessments by REACH report increased conflict in Tonj, resulting in displacement towards Romich and Tonj towns.

Reason for Concern

Ongoing conflict continues to cause major disruption to livelihoods in the northeast, with large populations in Borno State heavily dependent on food assistance.

Current Observations

There have been 65 reported fatal conflict events in the three northeastern states this year. For Borno, 2017 had the most events since the start of the Boko Haram insurgency.

Reason for Concern

The extensive conflict has reduced incomes, and food prices remain elevated. Food access is inadequate for many poor households.

Current Observations

Reports suggest Al Hudaydah and Salif ports remain open and imports continue. However, port access for larger container ships carrying some essential food and non-food items remains restricted. 

Reason for Concern

Four consecutive poor rainy seasons that have led to severe drought in some areas and, consequently, large-scale livestock losses and poor production. Furthermore, the April to June 2018 Gu season is forecast to be below average.  

Current Observations

According to ACLED, there were 262 conflict-related incidents across Somalia in February 2018, compared to 209 in February 2017.

Reason for Concern

Severe drought over the past year has resulted in very large livestock losses in Ethiopia’s Somali Region, which has sharply reduced household food and income access.

Current Observations

Areas of southern Oromia affected by several poor seasons in 2016 and 2017 received heavy rainfall during the first week of March.

Other Areas of Concern

Reason for Concern

The Oct-Dec 2017 short rains marked the third consecutive season of drought across eastern Kenya’s pastoral and marginal agricultural areas, affecting livestock productivity and crop production.

Current Observations

Early and above-average seasonal rainfall is driving forage regeneration but has also caused flooding in  Kajiado, Makueni, and Kilifi.

Reason for Concern

Ongoing conflicts in the Kasai region, North Kivu, South Kivu, Ituri, and Tanganyika Provinces have caused ongoing displacement and affected households’ abilities to access their livelihoods.

Current Observations

Inter-ethnic fighting in northern Kasai region has caused new displacement of more than 11,000 people in the past month.

Reason for Concern

Widespread conflict and displacement, poor 2017 rainfed staple production, and weak casual labor markets are the primary drivers of acute food insecurity, which is experienced by more people in early 2018 than during the previous lean season.

Current Observations

Most basins in the country enter the spring season with well below average snowpack, increasing concerns for irrigation water availability in marginal areas.

Areas of Highest Concern

Country or Region Reason for Concern Current Observations
South Sudan

Conflict has severely disrupted trade, humanitarian access, and livelihoods. Very poor macroeconomic conditions constrain household market access.

Recent assessments by REACH report increased conflict in Tonj, resulting in displacement towards Romich and Tonj towns.

Nigeria

Ongoing conflict continues to cause major disruption to livelihoods in the northeast, with large populations in Borno State heavily dependent on food assistance.

There have been 65 reported fatal conflict events in the three northeastern states this year. For Borno, 2017 had the most events since the start of the Boko Haram insurgency.

Yemen

The extensive conflict has reduced incomes, and food prices remain elevated. Food access is inadequate for many poor households.

Reports suggest Al Hudaydah and Salif ports remain open and imports continue. However, port access for larger container ships carrying some essential food and non-food items remains restricted. 

Somalia

Four consecutive poor rainy seasons that have led to severe drought in some areas and, consequently, large-scale livestock losses and poor production. Furthermore, the April to June 2018 Gu season is forecast to be below average.  

According to ACLED, there were 262 conflict-related incidents across Somalia in February 2018, compared to 209 in February 2017.

Ethiopia

Severe drought over the past year has resulted in very large livestock losses in Ethiopia’s Somali Region, which has sharply reduced household food and income access.

Areas of southern Oromia affected by several poor seasons in 2016 and 2017 received heavy rainfall during the first week of March.

Other Areas of Concern

Country or Region Reason for Concern Current Observations
Kenya

The Oct-Dec 2017 short rains marked the third consecutive season of drought across eastern Kenya’s pastoral and marginal agricultural areas, affecting livestock productivity and crop production.

Early and above-average seasonal rainfall is driving forage regeneration but has also caused flooding in  Kajiado, Makueni, and Kilifi.

DRC

Ongoing conflicts in the Kasai region, North Kivu, South Kivu, Ituri, and Tanganyika Provinces have caused ongoing displacement and affected households’ abilities to access their livelihoods.

Inter-ethnic fighting in northern Kasai region has caused new displacement of more than 11,000 people in the past month.

Afghanistan

Widespread conflict and displacement, poor 2017 rainfed staple production, and weak casual labor markets are the primary drivers of acute food insecurity, which is experienced by more people in early 2018 than during the previous lean season.

Most basins in the country enter the spring season with well below average snowpack, increasing concerns for irrigation water availability in marginal areas.

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Peak needs 2018

FEWS NET Data Center link

Scenario development video

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 34 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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