Areas of Highest Concern

Reason for Concern

Conflict has severely disrupted trade, humanitarian access, and livelihoods. Very poor macroeconomic conditions constrain household market access.

Current Observations

Recent conflict in Uror has caused thousands to flee to Akobo town, Bor PoC, Nyirol, and Gambella of Ethiopia.

Reason for Concern

Boko Haram conflict continues to cause major disruption to livelihoods in the northeast. Large populations remain heavily dependent on humanitarian assistance for food access, the majority of whom are in Borno State.

Current Observations

In December, humanitarian agencies increased livelihoods and agricultural support, although there was a reduction in people reached with food assistance in the post-harvest period.

Reason for Concern

The extensive conflict has reduced incomes, and food prices remain elevated. Food access is inadequate for many poor households.

Current Observations

Fuel imports through Al Hudaydah and Salif ports rebounded in January 2018 following the lifting of the blockade on December 20, 2017. 

Reason for Concern

Four consecutive poor rainy seasons that have led to severe drought in some areas and, consequently, large-scale livestock losses and poor production. Furthermore, the April to June 2018 Gu season is forecast to be below average.  

Current Observations

Little to no Deyr rainfall was received in Guban Agropastoral livelihood zone. Field visits indicate livestock body conditions are very poor, and atypical livestock deaths are possible in the coming months.

Reason for Concern

Severe drought over the past year has resulted in very large livestock losses in Ethiopia’s Somali Region, which has sharply reduced household food and income access.

Current Observations

Conflict along the Oromia-Somali border displaced approximately 857,000 people between late August and late December 2017, according to the Ethiopia National Disaster Risk Management Commission.

Other Areas of Concern

Reason for Concern

The Oct-Dec 2017 short rains marked the third consecutive season of drought across eastern Kenya’s pastoral and marginal agricultural areas, affecting livestock productivity and crop production.

Current Observations

Due to an extended dry season from the poor short rains, pasture is expected to last only until mid-February in Garissa, Isiolo, Mandera, and Marsabit.

Reason for Concern

Ongoing conflicts in the Kasai region, North Kivu, South Kivu and Tanganyika Provinces have caused ongoing displacement and affected households’ abilities to access their livelihoods.

Current Observations

Renewed violence in South Kivu caused the displacement of more than 8,000 people to Burundi and Tanzania in the last week of January, and it is expected there are even more people internally displaced who will lack access to their normal livelihoods and food.

Reason for Concern

Widespread conflict and displacement, poor 2017 rainfed staple production, and weak casual labor markets are the primary drivers of acute food insecurity, which is experienced by more people in early 2018 than during the previous lean season.

Current Observations

Spring rainfed staple production is likely to be adversely affected by dryness associated with the ongoing La Niña.

Areas of Highest Concern

Country or Region Reason for Concern Current Observations
South Sudan

Conflict has severely disrupted trade, humanitarian access, and livelihoods. Very poor macroeconomic conditions constrain household market access.

Recent conflict in Uror has caused thousands to flee to Akobo town, Bor PoC, Nyirol, and Gambella of Ethiopia.

Nigeria

Boko Haram conflict continues to cause major disruption to livelihoods in the northeast. Large populations remain heavily dependent on humanitarian assistance for food access, the majority of whom are in Borno State.

In December, humanitarian agencies increased livelihoods and agricultural support, although there was a reduction in people reached with food assistance in the post-harvest period.

Yemen

The extensive conflict has reduced incomes, and food prices remain elevated. Food access is inadequate for many poor households.

Fuel imports through Al Hudaydah and Salif ports rebounded in January 2018 following the lifting of the blockade on December 20, 2017. 

Somalia

Four consecutive poor rainy seasons that have led to severe drought in some areas and, consequently, large-scale livestock losses and poor production. Furthermore, the April to June 2018 Gu season is forecast to be below average.  

Little to no Deyr rainfall was received in Guban Agropastoral livelihood zone. Field visits indicate livestock body conditions are very poor, and atypical livestock deaths are possible in the coming months.

Ethiopia

Severe drought over the past year has resulted in very large livestock losses in Ethiopia’s Somali Region, which has sharply reduced household food and income access.

Conflict along the Oromia-Somali border displaced approximately 857,000 people between late August and late December 2017, according to the Ethiopia National Disaster Risk Management Commission.

Other Areas of Concern

Country or Region Reason for Concern Current Observations
Kenya

The Oct-Dec 2017 short rains marked the third consecutive season of drought across eastern Kenya’s pastoral and marginal agricultural areas, affecting livestock productivity and crop production.

Due to an extended dry season from the poor short rains, pasture is expected to last only until mid-February in Garissa, Isiolo, Mandera, and Marsabit.

DRC

Ongoing conflicts in the Kasai region, North Kivu, South Kivu and Tanganyika Provinces have caused ongoing displacement and affected households’ abilities to access their livelihoods.

Renewed violence in South Kivu caused the displacement of more than 8,000 people to Burundi and Tanzania in the last week of January, and it is expected there are even more people internally displaced who will lack access to their normal livelihoods and food.

Afghanistan

Widespread conflict and displacement, poor 2017 rainfed staple production, and weak casual labor markets are the primary drivers of acute food insecurity, which is experienced by more people in early 2018 than during the previous lean season.

Spring rainfed staple production is likely to be adversely affected by dryness associated with the ongoing La Niña.

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Peak needs 2018

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About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 34 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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