Areas of Highest Concern

Reason for Concern

Conflict has severely disrupted trade, humanitarian access, and livelihoods. Very poor macroeconomic conditions constrain household market access.

Current Observations

A rapid food security assessment in September to Kapoeta East found many households did not harvest first season crops. Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes exist.

Reason for Concern

Boko Haram conflict continues to cause major disruption to livelihoods in the northeast. Large populations remain heavily dependent on humanitarian assistance for food access, the majority of whom are in Borno State.

Current Observations

Staple food prices in the northeast remain very high. In Maiduguri, Borno State, prices for maize, rice, and sorghum in September 2017 were up 140 percent from September 2015. Millet was up by 190 percent.

Reason for Concern

The extensive conflict has reduced incomes, and food prices remain elevated. Food access is inadequate for many poor households.

Current Observations

Media reports suggest payment of some governmental salaries has resumed in parts of Ta’izz, but payment remain very delayed and erratic.

Reason for Concern

The April to June 2017 Gu season was well below average and the 2017 October to December Deyr season is forecast to be below-average. This follows large rainfall deficits in 2016 for both Gu and Deyr seasons.

Current Observations

According to remote monitoring rainfall estimates, most areas of Somalia received less than 25mm of rainfall in the first two weeks of October, resulting in early season deficits of 10-25mm.

Reason for Concern

Severe drought over the past year has resulted in very large livestock losses in Ethiopia’s Somali Region, which has sharply reduced household food and income access.

Current Observations

Early Deyr (October to December) seasonal rainfall has been light and sporadic, but slightly above average, over much of Somali Region during the first two weeks of October, according to satellite-derived rainfall estimates. 

Other Areas of Concern

Reason for Concern

The 2017 long rains marked the second consecutive season of drought across the majority of Kenya’s pastoral and marginal agricultural areas, which affected livestock productivity and crop production.

Current Observations

Off-season rains in western pastoral areas have improved water and forage availability, but forecast below-average October to December 2017 short rains are unlikely to lead to similar improvements in the northeast.

Reason for Concern

Ongoing conflict in Kasai-Centrale Province since August 2016 has caused ongoing displacement and affected households’ abilities to access their livelihoods.

Current Observations

The size of the displaced population from the Kasaï region is still approximated at 1.4 million people despite approximately 490,000 returnees to the region.

Reason for Concern

Widespread conflict, poor rainfed staple production, and weak casual labor markets are the primary drivers of acute food insecurity, which is expected to be more extensive in early 2018 than the previous lean season.

Current Observations

Provinces with significant rainfed production that suffered heavy losses due to dryness in 2017 include Takhar, Balkh, Badakhshan, Samangan, Jawzjan, Baghlan, Sar-i-Pul, and Ghor.

Areas of Highest Concern

Country or Region Reason for Concern Current Observations
South Sudan

Conflict has severely disrupted trade, humanitarian access, and livelihoods. Very poor macroeconomic conditions constrain household market access.

A rapid food security assessment in September to Kapoeta East found many households did not harvest first season crops. Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes exist.

Nigeria

Boko Haram conflict continues to cause major disruption to livelihoods in the northeast. Large populations remain heavily dependent on humanitarian assistance for food access, the majority of whom are in Borno State.

Staple food prices in the northeast remain very high. In Maiduguri, Borno State, prices for maize, rice, and sorghum in September 2017 were up 140 percent from September 2015. Millet was up by 190 percent.

Yemen

The extensive conflict has reduced incomes, and food prices remain elevated. Food access is inadequate for many poor households.

Media reports suggest payment of some governmental salaries has resumed in parts of Ta’izz, but payment remain very delayed and erratic.

Somalia

The April to June 2017 Gu season was well below average and the 2017 October to December Deyr season is forecast to be below-average. This follows large rainfall deficits in 2016 for both Gu and Deyr seasons.

According to remote monitoring rainfall estimates, most areas of Somalia received less than 25mm of rainfall in the first two weeks of October, resulting in early season deficits of 10-25mm.

Ethiopia

Severe drought over the past year has resulted in very large livestock losses in Ethiopia’s Somali Region, which has sharply reduced household food and income access.

Early Deyr (October to December) seasonal rainfall has been light and sporadic, but slightly above average, over much of Somali Region during the first two weeks of October, according to satellite-derived rainfall estimates. 

Other Areas of Concern

Country or Region Reason for Concern Current Observations
Kenya

The 2017 long rains marked the second consecutive season of drought across the majority of Kenya’s pastoral and marginal agricultural areas, which affected livestock productivity and crop production.

Off-season rains in western pastoral areas have improved water and forage availability, but forecast below-average October to December 2017 short rains are unlikely to lead to similar improvements in the northeast.

DRC

Ongoing conflict in Kasai-Centrale Province since August 2016 has caused ongoing displacement and affected households’ abilities to access their livelihoods.

The size of the displaced population from the Kasaï region is still approximated at 1.4 million people despite approximately 490,000 returnees to the region.

Afghanistan

Widespread conflict, poor rainfed staple production, and weak casual labor markets are the primary drivers of acute food insecurity, which is expected to be more extensive in early 2018 than the previous lean season.

Provinces with significant rainfed production that suffered heavy losses due to dryness in 2017 include Takhar, Balkh, Badakhshan, Samangan, Jawzjan, Baghlan, Sar-i-Pul, and Ghor.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 34 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.