Areas of Highest Concern

Reason for Concern

Conflict has severely disrupted trade, humanitarian access, and livelihoods. Very poor macroeconomic conditions constrain household market access.

Current Observations

WHO reports a suspected Hemorrhagic Fever Outbreak in Yirol East of Lakes State.

Reason for Concern

Boko Haram conflict continues to cause major disruption to livelihoods in the northeast. Large populations remain heavily dependent on humanitarian assistance for food access, the majority of whom are in Borno State.

Current Observations

Assistance needs during the 2018 lean season will likely be greater than last year, due to poor staple harvests in the northeast, continued disruptions to markets and livelihoods due to conflict, and very high food prices.

Reason for Concern

The extensive conflict has reduced incomes, and food prices remain elevated. Food access is inadequate for many poor households.

Current Observations

Fuel prices increase sharply on some markets in Yemen, including in Ta’izz, Hajjah, and Al Hudaydah, following restrictions on imports into Yemen.

Reason for Concern

Four consecutive poor rainy seasons that have led to severe drought in some areas and, consequently, large-scale livestock losses and poor production. Furthermore, the April to June 2018 Gu season is forecast to be below average.  

Current Observations

The retail price of sorghum in Baidoa declined 10 percent between November and December and is now only 13 percent above the five-year average.  

Reason for Concern

Severe drought over the past year has resulted in very large livestock losses in Ethiopia’s Somali Region, which has sharply reduced household food and income access.

Current Observations

Conflict along the Oromia-Somali border displaced approximately 857,000 people between late August and late December 2017, according to the Ethiopia National Disaster Risk Management Commission.

Other Areas of Concern

Reason for Concern

The 2017 long rains marked the second consecutive season of drought across the majority of Kenya’s pastoral and marginal agricultural areas, which affected livestock productivity and crop production.

Current Observations

For the fourth consecutive week, rainfall was below average in the east, which has resulted in drought over southeastern pastoral and marginal agricultural areas.

Reason for Concern

Ongoing conflict in the Kasai region since August 2016 has caused ongoing displacement and affected households’ abilities to access their livelihoods.

Current Observations

Households stocks are depleted from inability to plant normally. Staple foods imported from neighboring provinces and countries are available in local markets, but household purchasing power remains low, further restricting households’ access to food.

Reason for Concern

Widespread conflict, poor rainfed staple production, and weak casual labor markets are the primary drivers of acute food insecurity, which is expected to be more extensive in early 2018 than during the previous lean season.

Current Observations

Snow cover extent as of mid-December, with the ongoing La Niña, is below average. Cumulative precipitation through May 2018 is expected to be below average.  

Areas of Highest Concern

Country or Region Reason for Concern Current Observations
South Sudan

Conflict has severely disrupted trade, humanitarian access, and livelihoods. Very poor macroeconomic conditions constrain household market access.

WHO reports a suspected Hemorrhagic Fever Outbreak in Yirol East of Lakes State.

Nigeria

Boko Haram conflict continues to cause major disruption to livelihoods in the northeast. Large populations remain heavily dependent on humanitarian assistance for food access, the majority of whom are in Borno State.

Assistance needs during the 2018 lean season will likely be greater than last year, due to poor staple harvests in the northeast, continued disruptions to markets and livelihoods due to conflict, and very high food prices.

Yemen

The extensive conflict has reduced incomes, and food prices remain elevated. Food access is inadequate for many poor households.

Fuel prices increase sharply on some markets in Yemen, including in Ta’izz, Hajjah, and Al Hudaydah, following restrictions on imports into Yemen.

Somalia

Four consecutive poor rainy seasons that have led to severe drought in some areas and, consequently, large-scale livestock losses and poor production. Furthermore, the April to June 2018 Gu season is forecast to be below average.  

The retail price of sorghum in Baidoa declined 10 percent between November and December and is now only 13 percent above the five-year average.  

Ethiopia

Severe drought over the past year has resulted in very large livestock losses in Ethiopia’s Somali Region, which has sharply reduced household food and income access.

Conflict along the Oromia-Somali border displaced approximately 857,000 people between late August and late December 2017, according to the Ethiopia National Disaster Risk Management Commission.

Other Areas of Concern

Country or Region Reason for Concern Current Observations
Kenya

The 2017 long rains marked the second consecutive season of drought across the majority of Kenya’s pastoral and marginal agricultural areas, which affected livestock productivity and crop production.

For the fourth consecutive week, rainfall was below average in the east, which has resulted in drought over southeastern pastoral and marginal agricultural areas.

DRC

Ongoing conflict in the Kasai region since August 2016 has caused ongoing displacement and affected households’ abilities to access their livelihoods.

Households stocks are depleted from inability to plant normally. Staple foods imported from neighboring provinces and countries are available in local markets, but household purchasing power remains low, further restricting households’ access to food.

Afghanistan

Widespread conflict, poor rainfed staple production, and weak casual labor markets are the primary drivers of acute food insecurity, which is expected to be more extensive in early 2018 than during the previous lean season.

Snow cover extent as of mid-December, with the ongoing La Niña, is below average. Cumulative precipitation through May 2018 is expected to be below average.  

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Peak needs 2018

Food security outlook story map

Scenario development video

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 34 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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