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Ethiopia: High and rising staple food prices continue

Estimated food security conditions, 3rd Quarter 2008 (July-September)

Generally Food Secure
Moderately Food Insecure
Highly Food Insecure
Extremely Food Insecure
Famine
No Data

Favorable Conditions
Somewhat Favorable Conditions
Short Term Dryness
Drought
Severe Drought
Humanitarian Concern

Extreme Event
Heavy Snow
Heavy Rain
Flooding
Blowing Dust
Extreme Cold
Extreme Heat

Geographic data are partly derived from the UN/FAO GAUL system. Read Disclaimer

West Africa

Nigeria

08/15/2008

In northern Nigeria, recent rainfall has led to gradual improvements in crop stands, water availability and pasture conditions. However, because rainfall has ... more
- In northern Nigeria, recent rainfall has led to gradual improvements in crop stands, water availability and pasture conditions. However, because rainfall has not been sufficient to recharge the water table and compensate for significant moisture deficits, pasture and water availability remain very limited in the north.
- In the north-central part of the country, the general outlook for the season is good and crops are doing well, owing to persistent rains since the start of the season. In the South, the harvest of major crops, including maize and yam, is underway. Although no production estimate is available, some reports are indicating an above-average harvest in most parts of the South.
- Food security conditions vary throughout the country in July. The combined impact of high international food prices and uncertainty as to the outcome of the season are resulting in persistently low market stocks and unseasonably high food prices in the far North. In the South, food security is gradually improving owing to the arrival of newly harvested crops in urban and rural markets and the replenishment of households’ food reserves. The impact of the early harvest is, however, limited as food prices remain high.
Nigeria Country Center
Burkina Faso | Chad | Mali | Mauritania | Niger | Regional Center

Southern Africa

Mozambique

08/11/2008

Following the recent VAC report, which identified 302,664 people as acutely food insecure, the government and its partners (e.g., WFP) are coordinating effor ... more
- Following the recent VAC report, which identified 302,664 people as acutely food insecure, the government and its partners (e.g., WFP) are coordinating efforts to initiate humanitarian assistance as rapidly as possible.
- Discussions during the second meeting of the National Directorate of Agrarian Services, held in Maputo in mid July, indicate that the second cropping season is generally progressing satisfactorily, mainly due to adequate and timely seed supplies, and the availability of wetter lowland areas, dewfall and irrigation systems. However, production in areas outside of the lowlands and irrigated areas has been poor due to the near total absence of rains.
- Maize prices remain much higher than the five-year average and that they have begun increasing post-harvest one to two months earlier than normal. Price increases have been largest in the central and northern markets.
- Findings from a rapid assessment of trade prospects, recently carried out by the Agricultural Market Information System (SIMA) of the Ministry of Agriculture, indicate that in general, traders’ perceptions are that 2007/08 production was below expectations and there is strong evidence that food supply at a national level has declined since last year.
Mozambique Country Center
Malawi | Zambia | Zimbabwe | Regional Center

Caribbean

Haiti

08/06/2008

Despite a relatively good spring June/July harvest, comparable to the same period of time in 2007, food security remains tenuous for the current July-Septemb ... more
- Despite a relatively good spring June/July harvest, comparable to the same period of time in 2007, food security remains tenuous for the current July-September period. Prices of food staples (rice, maize, beans, sorghum) have remained high. The high international prices of cereals and oil continue to prevent an improvement in food security conditions. Despite the recent harvest, about 2.3 million people, predominantly in the relatively arid areas of the Northwest and Northeast, and in poor urban areas, are moderately to acutely food insecure. Due to their particular vulnerability to hurricanes, the South Peninsula (Nippes, Grand'Anse, the South and Southeast) is also food insecure.
- In the most likely scenario, October to December, food insecurity will further deteriorate as a result of high prices of food staples, the risks of hurricanes and continuing civil insecurity, and the high cost of transporting children after the school year begins in September. Approximately 2.5 million people are food insecure in this scenario.
- The food security situation through December could be more alarming than that used in the most likely scenario, following the developments and particularly the impact of negative factors (prices, hurricanes, etc.). In the worst-case scenario, food security will deteriorate further due to a worsening of these same factors and a greater reduction in remittances from the diaspora due to a possible slowdown in the U.S. economy. This could lead to new violent protests against the high cost of living. In this scenario, about 50 percent of the population, or approximately four million people, would be food insecure.
Haiti Country Center

East Africa

Djibouti

07/21/2008

Successive droughts, high staple food prices, decreased remittances, high inflation, border conflict with Eritrea, limited availability of staple foods and a ... more
- Successive droughts, high staple food prices, decreased remittances, high inflation, border conflict with Eritrea, limited availability of staple foods and a lack of sufficient resources to respond adequately to the current food crisis may lead to famine in certain areas, particularly in the northwest and southeast pastoral livelihood zones. High and extreme food insecurity already exist in most pastoral areas. FEWS NET estimates that 155,000 people (including 25,000 children under five years) in both rural and urban areas, currently require emergency aid. In the worst case, a total of 341,000 people (54 percent of the population) are expected to need emergency food and water supplies by August.
- Rainfall in June rarely exceeded 10 mm, and the coastal belt of Obock, the grazing area between Tadjourah and Obock (Weeli Sector), and pockets in Arta district near the Loyadda between Somaliland and Djibouti received no precipitation at all. Although June is usually dry, this level of rainfall was still 50 - 95 percent below normal.
- There is also a high likelihood that the food security situation of poor urban households will deteriorate to extreme levels during this summer due to a combination of high prices, high unemployment and typical seasonal income declines. In addition to increased obstacles to food access, Djibouti city is facing critical water shortages and water rationing has been initiated by the Government. In combination with the issues raised above, these shortages are contributing to an increased likelihood of social unrest and political instability.
- Women and children displaced by the conflict between Eritrea and Djibouti have regrouped in Khor-Angar and Andoli. Men have migrated further inland to look for a more permanent save haven. Forty families in Khor- Angar and seven families in Andoli are receiving food aid and other assistance from UN organizations (e.g., WFP, UNICEF, UNHCR).
Djibouti Country Center
Ethiopia | Kenya | Somalia | Sudan | Tanzania | Uganda | Regional Center

Central America

Guatemala

07/29/2008

Above-normal rains in June and July from tropical storm Arthur and the low pressure systems that followed caused heavy precipitation in the northern departme ... more
- Above-normal rains in June and July from tropical storm Arthur and the low pressure systems that followed caused heavy precipitation in the northern departments of Izabal, Alta Verapaz, and the south of Petén, saturating soil, damaging crops, and raising river levels to maximum capacity. Eastern portions of Guatemala, particularly Chiquimula, Zacapa, Baja Verapaz, Jalapa, and El Progreso, that had been experiencing below-normal rainfall in May and June also began receiving excessive rainfall in July (377 percent of the historic average for the month). Above-normal rainfall in both these areas has caused damage to or loss of staple and cash crops, precipitated landslides, damaged infrastructure, and led to the deaths of at least 17 people.
- Approximately 1,335,000 people are at risk of food insecurity as a result of these heavy rains and their impacts on agricultural production and other livelihoods (e.g., fishing). Government and other institution action is needed to improve access to potable water and prevent vector-borne diseases, and rebuild roads, bridges, and other essential infrastructure to re-establish access to affected areas. Food assistance to households who lost crops in affected areas is also needed for at least the next four months, until the next harvest is available. Distribution of seeds and tools to the most affected areas for re-sowing activities is also recommended.
- The sowing season for basic grains started in May and June, and by mid-June, maize and bean crops are mainly in the growing phenology. Harvests are expected in August and September in most of the country, and November/December in the highlands.
Guatemala Country Center

Central Asia

Afghanistan

07/28/2008

Satellite imagery of irrigated areas in northern Afghanistan indicates that current conditions represent the most severe drought to affect the country since ... more
- Satellite imagery of irrigated areas in northern Afghanistan indicates that current conditions represent the most severe drought to affect the country since 2000. This, coupled with high food prices and ongoing conflict, has contributed to deteriorating food security. In response, the Afghan government and United Nations have jointly appeal for USD 400 million in order address emergency needs. Funding the food security component of this appeal is essential to prevent a humanitarian crisis.
- Summer temperatures are above normal, causing increased water evaporation and affecting water availability for autumn planting, particularly for winter wheat. Provision of improved seeds and chemical fertilizer is recommended in areas where water availability is ensured.
- Retail wheat prices remain significantly higher than both last year’s prices at this time and the five-year average, but have fallen in the past month as a result of the recent wheat harvest, anticipated imports from Pakistan, and promised donations from Russia. These lower prices will temporarily increase food access, but purchases of winter food stocks will begin to drive prices higher with a few months.
Afghanistan Country Center

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Ethiopia	08/12/2008
High and rising food prices continue
Guatemala	07/23/2008
Excess rains threaten food security

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