• Following normal to above-normal rainfall in most parts of the region, favorable crop harvests are expected. Rangeland conditions have also benefitted, leading to further improvements in food security conditions in m ... more
  • Following normal to above-normal rainfall in most parts of the region, favorable crop harvests are expected. Rangeland conditions have also benefitted, leading to further improvements in food security conditions in many parts of the region over the last several months.
  • However, as the lean season peaks during the July to September period in many areas, levels of food insecurity are generally expected to remain high. Millions of people will continue to rely on food assistance to meet basic food needs as household food stocks and food availability are expected to be low, and cereal prices will likely remain above the recent five-year average. However, food security conditions are likely to improve in southeastern Ethiopia, particularly Somali Region; inland areas of Djibouti; and pastoral and agropastoral areas of Somalia, with the exception of the Northeast and Central regions. In these areas, improved livestock conditions will provide access to livestock products as well as income. In the first season cropping areas of Western, Central, and Eastern Equatoria in Southern Sudan and in bimodal areas of Uganda, conditions are also expected to improve due to incoming harvests and increased labor opportunities.
  • Food security is likely to improve in most parts of the region from October to December as main season harvests take place, employment opportunities increase, and prices of food staples tend to decline. However, forecasts for the October to December rains indicate the probability of below-normal rains in the eastern sector of the region due to a developing La Niña event. In addition to negatively impacting crop production for the early 2011 harvests, below-normal rains are likely to result in shortages of water and pasture and deterioration in pastoralist terms of trade. Above-normal precipitation is expected in the northern and western sector of the region, which could result in good crop production, but would also reduce market access and increase the risk of flooding and waterborne diseases.

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