Minimal food insecurity expected to continue through the lean season

• Due to last season's good harvests, household food stocks remain above-average. Although the lean season has started normally in April in the southeast, poor households throughout the country are still able to meet essential food and non-food needs through normal livelihood strategies. From April through September 2013, households are expected to face Minimal/None (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity.
• Voluntarily repatriation efforts to return Ivorian refugees to their home country were suspended in late March due to increased insecurity in western Cote d'Ivoire. Most of these refugees are active in income generating activities and are expected to stay in Liberia for the near future. Those living within camps will however remain partially dependant on food assistance.

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Minimal food insecurity expected to continue through at least next June

• Good harvests, coupled with normal livelihood strategies, are enabling households to meet essential food and non-food needs. Households are expected to be food secure (IPC Phase 1) through at least June 2013.
• Rice production during the 2012/13 cropping season was slightly above-average. These good production levels, combined with the normal levels of rice imports, will be sufficient to meet Liberia's food needs during the 2012/13 consumption year. Imported rice prices will likely remain stable with little variation over the upcoming months.
• The Liberia Refugee Repatriation and Resettlement Commission (LRRRC) reported that approximately 66,871 Ivorian refugees were living within Liberia (38,494 in refugee camps) as of January 2013. Despite engaging in various income-generating activities, refugees living within camps will remain partially dependent on food assistance while in Liberia.

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Minimal food insecurity expected through at least next April

• Rice production for 2012/13 is expected to meet approximately 36 percent of the country's consumption needs, and imports will be sufficient to make up the gap. As a result, rice prices will remain at normal levels.
• As of November 2012, UNHCR reports that approximately 37,242 Ivoirian refugees are still in camps in Liberia. This population size has been relatively stable since July, and these refugees will remain partially dependent on food assistance while in the country.
• This season's good harvests, coupled with normal livelihood strategies, will enable households to meet essential food and non-food needs. Households are expected to be food secure (IPC Phase 1) through at least March 2013.

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No significant anomalies affecting acute food insecurity have been observed in September or are expected in the near future. Acute food insecurity remains minimal.

As of August 2012, approximately 42,800 Ivoirian refugees remained in Liberia, with 29,000 of these households living in six camps. Refugees will remain at least partially dependent on food assistance through the end of the year. By engaging locally in crop production, agricultural labor, petty trade, and mining, many refugees are improving their food security. In areas hosting refugees, such as Grand Gedeh, River Gee, Maryland, and Nimba, market functioning and agricultural production are similar to a normal year. Pressure on host communities is likely to be less in 2012/13 than in 2011/12.

Cumulative rainfall totals as of August for this season, which normally runs from April to September, is similar to the five-year average in northern counties, but slightly below the average in the central and southern counties, such as Grand Bassa, Sinoe, Maryland, River Gee, River Cess and north Grand Gedeh. However, the progression of the main agricultural season is normal nationwide. Harvests of early planted rice in the southeast (Grand Gedeh, River Gee and Maryland) are almost finished as of September. In swamps, the transplantation of rice is near completion and the rice crop is in the tillering or elongating stage. In other areas of the country, upland rice has reached fructification. Major farm activities include the harvesting of vegetables, upland rice (in the southeast), cowpeas, groundnuts, and cassava. Since rainfall had been regular, the main cereal harvest is expected to be comparable to the five-year average. (August 2012)

The new harvest of early planted upland rice in the southeastern counties has replenished households stocks, resulting in lower levels of market food purchases in September compared to recent months. As a result, the major lean season has ended in September there. General rice harvests will start in October and will last through December. (September 2012)

The price of imported rice has been relatively stable since April, and current commercial stocks of imported rice are reportedly enough to meet domestic demand through next January. However, physical market access in remote areas of the southeast has been poor due to the rainy season. In August, the prices of imported rice were relatively stable as compared to July, except for in Saclepea and Tubmanburg were prices increased by 25-30 percent. Due to China's restrictions on rice exports in 2011, a consumption shift occurred in Liberia over the past year from predominantly Chinese butter rice to mainly parboiled rice imported from Vietnam, Brazil, Thailand, India, Pakistan, USA, and Uruguay. This resulted in higher prices for imported rice in 2012 (parboiled rice) in comparison to rice prices in 2011 (Chinese butter rice). For example, imported rice prices were about 10 percent higher this year than last in Bo-Waterside, Faya, and Gbarnga and 20-30 percent higher in Voinjama, Red Light, and Tubmanburg.

The price of palm oil, a major commodity used in cooking and an important source of household incomes, has been stable this month compared to last, except for in Voinjama and Saclepea (located near the Guinean border) were prices rose by 8-12 percent. Compared to last year, palm oil prices have also been stable at most markets, except for at Bo-Waterside and Saclepea (8-11 percent increase) and at the Foya market (14 percent decrease due to high levels of supply).

Gasoline prices, an important factor in transportation costs, were reportedly stable in August compared to July and last year, except for in Lofa where gasoline prices were approximately 13 percent higher than last year.

Prices for charcoal and other traded goods are seasonably high at this time of year (approx. 20 percent higher than in May) and 15-20 percent more expensive than last year. This price increase is due to higher production costs, as well as in some cases higher transportation costs due to the poor condition of roads during the rains.

In general, household incomes remain average to good in comparison to a normal year. Harvests of cassava, cowpea, plantain, rice, etc. are enabling households to meet basic food needs. By selling harvests and palm oil, as well as engaging in casual labor, households are able to afford imported rice when desired. (July 2012)

Rainfall between the start of season in April and the second dekad of July has been normal in the half north of the country but 10-30 percent below the five-year average in the centre and south of the country, namely Grand Bassa, River Cess, Grand Gedeh, Sinoe, River Gee, Grand Kru and Maryland. However, it is sufficient to maintain good crop health so far. (July 2012)

Upland rice planted in April in the south eastern counties is performing well, and a normal harvest is expected in August/September. In the big farms of these counties and other areas in the country, planting of upland rice is completed. Major farm activities include weeding and harvest of cowpeas. (July 2012)

In July, stocks of imported rice are reported good enough to meet demand. The supply of imported rice remains average to good on major markets nationwide. Household rice stocks in rural areas are at seasonal lows, leading to more purchase of imported rice by wealthier groups and poor households depending on their own-produced cassava for food. Some poor households still have access to imported rice thanks to incomes earned from typical livelihood activities. (July 2012)

In the bimodal southeastern counties (Grand Gedeh, River Gee, Maryland and south Nimba), the lean season, which began normally in April/May, is reaching the end in July with the new harvest of early planted rice expected to begin in August. In other areas, the lean season is starting as usual in July. (July 2012)

In May, food prices remained stable as compared to April but were higher than last year, particularly for key staples of imported rice and palm oil. For example, the price of parboiled rice was from 16 percent above last year in Bo-Waterside in the northwest close to Sierra Leone, but to 40-50 percent above last year in Monrovia (Red Light) and Gbarnga in the center, and 72 percent above last year in Tubmanburg. These high prices are partly due to China’s restrictions on rice exports in 2011, which resulted in a shift in consumption over the year from (predominantly) Chinese butter rice to mainly parboiled rice from Vietnam, Brazil, Thailand, India, Pakistan, USA and Uruguay. Palm oil prices in May were relatively stable with a slight increase of 3-4 percent since April in Gbarnga and Bo-Waterside. Prices of palm oil are slightly higher than last year by 10-15 percent in Monrovia and Tubmanburg. Palm oil prices are highest compared to last year (43 percent increase) in Pleebo in the far southeast, where physical access to the main production areas is difficult, and local production flows to Barclayville and southern Côte d’Ivoire. Gasoline prices were stable in May with a slight increase of 5-6 percent in Gbarnga and Bo-Waterside. The annual increase is about 6-8 percent except in Pleebo in the south where a 2 percent decrease was observed. The prices of charcoal vary from 175 LRD in Tubmanburg to 300 LRD in Zwedru in the south eastern and remained stable between April and May, though at levels 10-28 percent higher than last year, except in Gbarnga in the production area displaying 5 percent decrease. (June 2012)

In general household incomes remain average to good. Cassava, cowpea, plantain, eddoe, etc. from their farms remain available to meet basic food needs. By selling some of this harvest, palm oil and charcoal, and engaging in casual labor, households can afford imported rice when desired. (July 2012)