Central America and Caribbean

November 2016

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance

IPC 2.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3: Crisis
4: Emergencia
5: Hambruna
Se estima que seria al menos una fase peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada

IPC 2.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3+: Crisis o peor
Se estima que seria al menos una fase
peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada

IPC 2.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

Países presenciales:
1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3: Crisis
4: Emergencia
5: Hambruna
Países de monitoreo remoto:
1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3+: Crisis o peor
Se estima que seria al menos una fase
peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada

IPC 2.0 Phase d'Insécurité Alimentaire Aiguë

1: Minimale
2: Stress
3: Crise
4: Urgence
5: Famine
Serait probablement pire, au moins une phase, sans l'assistance humanitaire en cours ou programmée

IPC 2.0 Phase d'Insécurité Alimentaire Aiguë

1: Minimale
2: Stress
3+: Crise ou pire
Serait probablement pire, au moins une phase, sans
l'assistance humanitaire en cours ou programmée

IPC 2.0 Phase d'Insécurité Alimentaire Aiguë

Pays de présence:
1: Minimale
2: Stress
3: Crise
4: Urgence
5: Famine
Pays suivis à distance:
1: Minimale
2: Stress
3+: Crise ou pire
Serait probablement pire, au moins une phase, sans
l'assistance humanitaire en cours ou programmée

IPC 2.0 Fase de Insegurança Alimentar Aguda Baseado

1: Minima
2: Stress
3: Crise
4: Emergência
5: Fome
Poderia ser pior sem a assistência humanitária em vigor ou programad

IPC 2.0 Fase de Insegurança Alimentar Aguda Baseado

1: Minima
2: Stress
3+: Crise ou pior
Poderia ser pior sem a assistência
humanitária em vigor ou programad

IPC 2.0 Fase de Insegurança Alimentar Aguda Baseado

Países com presença:
1: Minima
2: Stress
3: Crise
4: Emergência
5: Fome
Países sem presença:
1: Minima
2: Stress
3+: Crise ou pior
Poderia ser pior sem a assistência
humanitária em vigor ou programad
Key Messages
  • In general, Postrera crops have developed normally. However, in localized areas that have experienced recurrent drought in the Dry Corridor (southern and southwest Honduras; western and eastern El Salvador; and the central and northern regions of Nicaragua), damages have been registered due to various factors, such as the extension of days without rain during the flowering stage, crop diseases due to excessive moisture, and the prevalence of Pulgón Amarillo (melanaphis sacchari/sorghi), in sorghum crops.

  • According to the consensus of the region’s meteorological services in the Climate Outlook Forum for Central America, normal conditions are expected for the period December 2016 through March 2017 in most of the region, with the exception of a central strip in Honduras and northern and central areas of Nicaragua, where above-average rainfall is expected. However, forecast precipitation totals remain relatively low due to the seasonality.

  • During the beginning of the 2016/2017 harvest period for coffee (October through February/March), the regional outlook for the sector is for increased production, due to reduced prevalence of coffee rust, improved distribution of rainfall and resulting improved yields, and improved agronomic practices as well as new areas under production. Furthermore, international coffee prices have increased in recent months, with the average October price of USD 1.43/pound according to the composite index of the ICO, the highest value in 21 months.

  • In Honduras, record coffee production is expected, surpassing the volume of the 2011/2012 season. In Nicaragua’s coffee sector, year-on-year growth in 2016/2017 is expected to surpass the seven percent growth of recent years. In El Salvador, production has been in decline for the past five years. However, for the 2016/2017 season, growth of 10 percent is expected, as compared to the previous season.

  • Maize and red bean prices have continued to decline, due to flows from Primera harvests since September, which have supplied regional markets. In the latter part of November, prices are expected to decrease further, due to final Primera harvests from areas cultivated jointly with beans and sesame, as well as the beginning of the Postrera harvests, primarily red beans.

  • With favorable agroclimatic conditions, improvements in the labor market in the coffee sector due to increased production and higher international prices, and declining prices for staple foods, households most affected by recent shocks in Honduras and Nicaragua are estimated to be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) during the period of analysis through May 2017, whereas in El Salvador, Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food security outcomes are anticipated.

Livelihoods

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 35 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.