Supply and Market Outlook

Central America Regional Supply and Market Outlook

April 2016

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) monitors trends in staple food supply and price trends in countries at risk of food insecurity. The Regional Supply and Market Outlook report provides a summary of regional staple food availability, surpluses and deficits during the current marketing year, projected price behavior, implications for local and regional commodity procurement and essential market monitoring indicators. FEWS NET gratefully acknowledges partner organizations, national ministries of agriculture, national market information systems, regional organizations, and others for their assistance in providing the harvest estimates, commodity balance sheets, as well as trade and price data used in this report.

Key Messages

  • Regional maize supplies are below-average and insufficient in Central America. El Salvador, Honduras, Guatemala, and Costa Rica are expected to fill supply gaps through continued and increased imports from the US. Supplies are likely to remain below-average in Nicaragua until the Primera harvest. Maize prices are expected to remain generally above-average in Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador, but similar to or below-average in Guatemala. Atypically high prices are expected in Nicaragua. Maize supplies and trade flows from the US, and supplies and prices in Nicaragua, will be important to monitor over the coming months.  

  • At the regional level, there is a small bean deficit, driven mostly by bean deficits in Honduras and Costa Rica, while El Salvador, Nicaragua, and Guatemala all have sufficient supplies to meet requirements. Prices in Nicaragua are expected to be above-average but not reach the atypically high 2014 levels, while prices will remain average elsewhere in the region. Bean supplies and prices in Nicaragua will have important implications for supplies and prices in Nicaragua, El Salvador, and Honduras in the coming months.

  • Rice supplies are near average across the region. Rice trends are expected to follow typical patterns this year.

  • Opportunities for local and regional procurement of all three commodities for in-kind assistance programs are limited.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 34 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.