Supply and Market Outlook

Central America Regional Supply and Market Outlook

January 2018

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • This report summarizes the supply and market outlook for white maize grain, black and red dry beans, and milled rice in Central America during the 2017/18 marketing year (MY). For the purposes of this report, Central America refers to the countries of Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua. Mexico and Costa Rica are also included in this report because of their relevance in regional staple food supply and trade.

  • The 2017/18 MY spans from August 2017 to July 2018, covering three main harvests: the 2017 August-to-October Primera harvest, the 2017/2018 November-to-March Postrera harvest, and the 2018 January-to-February Apante/Postrera tardía harvest. The November-to-March and January-to-February harvest data are projected and may be updated as up to date harvest estimates become available. 

  • Preliminary production estimates suggest that, at the regional level, aggregate maize and bean production for MY 2017/18 is expected to be above the previous year and five-year average levels for a second consecutive year, and rice is expected to be near average levels. Taking domestic requirements into consideration, the region is expected to have significantly above average maize and bean surpluses, and an average rice deficit. Imports from well supplied regional and international markets are expected to help fill domestic supply gaps. 

  • Nominal maize, bean, and rice prices are expected to remain generally average to below-average in all countries through the end of the marketing year (July 2018) when the next Primera harvest starts in August 2018.

  • International import levels, regional trade flows, government policies, and the performance of upcoming harvests will be important to monitor in 2018. Any market-based response activities should consider the projected market and trade dynamics put forth in this report. 

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 34 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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