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Presence Country
Key Message Update

Poor precipitation, limited labor opportunities, and widespread conflict remain key drivers of food insecurity as lean season begins

January 2018

January 2018

February - May 2018

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Conflict and civil insecurity caused the displacement of nearly 450,000 people in 2017, while disrupting typical livelihoods activities for many more. Control measures on the movement of people and goods are limiting the ability of households to maintain their normal livelihood activities. The approximately 650,000 people displaced in 2016 was the worst displacement since 2002.

  • Casual labor markets have weakened in recent years, particularly since the withdrawal of most ISAF forces in 2014/2015 and associated labor opportunities in construction, trade, services, etc. Consecutive years of below-average rainfed staple production, with particularly poor harvests in 2017, have also adversely impacted the availability of labor opportunities in major production areas. 

  • Many poor and displaced households were limited in their ability to stock grains and prepare for the ongoing winter and lean season, due in part to many areas with very poor rainfed staple production in 2017. Limited labor opportunities and extensive conflict limited households’ ability to meet winter preparation needs from other sources. The number of people facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse outcomes during the ongoing lean season is estimated to be greater than last year. Although these households are located throughout the country, areas of greatest concern include parts of Sari-Pul, Hilmand, Badakhshan, Kunduz, Daykundi, Badghis, and Nangarhar Provinces.

  • Cumulative precipitation for the ongoing October 2017 – May 2018 wet season has been well-below average through late January, with estimates indicating less than 25 percent of average precipitation in much of the country. The ongoing La Niña increases the risk for below-average precipitation during the remainder of the season. Near-surface air temperatures throughout the winter months (December – March) are expected to be above both the long and short-term averages. This is likely to have an adverse impact on snow accumulation in mid-elevation areas. Below average precipitation and above-average temperatures are likely to lead to below-average snow water equivalent in most basins.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 34 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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