Regional Market Report

Regional wheat supply and market outlook

October 2015

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance

Key Messages

  • Regional wheat supplies in Central Asia are near the five year average and are expected to remain so over the 2015/2016 marketing year. 

  • The structurally deficit countries of Afghanistan and Tajikistan are expected to meet their domestic wheat requirements through intra-regional trade with Pakistan and Kazakhstan. 

  • In Tajikistan, wheat prices have reached record high levels (26 percent higher than average) and are projected to remain at the current high levels. The Tajik currency (Somoni) has depreciated by 27 percent against the USD over the past year due to reduced remittance inflows. Tajikistan is particularly reliant on food imports, thus the depreciation of the Somoni has been driving up food prices. 

  • Wheat prices in Afghanistan and Pakistan are near average and are projected to be stable, while wheat prices in Kazakhstan are lower than average and are projected to remain lower than average. 

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 35 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.