Regional Market Report

Regional wheat supply and market outlook

October 2016

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance

Key Messages

  • Wheat production in Central Asia for the 2016/2017 marketing year is similar to 2015/2016 and slightly above the five-year average. Consecutive years of good production have led to regional carry-over stocks that are 37 percent above average. 

  • Wheat price levels and trends vary across the region. Prices are 16 percent below average in Kazakhstan, stable and near the average in Afghanistan and Pakistan, and well above average in Tajikistan.

  • The region is expected to have a surplus of wheat that is 26 percent higher than the previous year and 52 percent higher than the five-year average.

  • Prices are projected to be similar to the previous year with the continuation of record low prices in Kazakhstan, very high prices in Tajikistan, and prices near average in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Tajik prices continue to be high because of their weak national currency which has depreciated substantially due to decreased remittances and lower export commodity prices.

  • Despite strong regional wheat supply and near-average prices, many people in Afghanistan face acute food insecurity, due primarily to reduced labor opportunities, increasing conflict and displacement, and large numbers of Afghan nationals being repatriated from Pakistan. 

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 35 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.