An estimated 13.3 million people in East Africa are in need of humanitarian assistance. Most are poor households in northeastern Djibouti, southern Borena, northeastern Afar, and eastern Amhara and Tigray in Ethiopia, northern and eastern Kenya, southern and central Somalia, South Kordofan and Darfur in Sudan, and the Greater Upper Nile (GUN) States in South Sudan. Food access is likely to remain lower than usual through March in these areas.
Due to low rainfall in recent seasons, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) is anticipated to persist in parts of northeastern and southern Ethiopia, northeastern Kenya, and coastal areas in central Somalia through March 2015. Poor and displaced households in conflict-affected areas including parts of South Kordofan and central and southern Darfur in Sudan and southern and western Yemen will also likely remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) through at least March.
Near average March to May rainfall is anticipated across the eastern Horn of Africa. In the areas that had well below-average October to December rainfall and above average temperatures in January through mid-February in eastern, southern, and northern Kenya, southern and parts of central Somalia, southern and northeastern Ethiopia, and central and southern Tanzania, the rains are expected to improve rangeland conditions, allow for crop production, and provide water, all leading to increased food security.
The price of staple foods declined during the harvest and post-harvest periods in many markets in Burundi, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda, Tanzania, and Yemen. With above-average region-wide availability of food, cross-border imports are anticipated to moderate increases in food prices, but prices are still likely to begin to rise earlier than normal due to below-average production in Burundi, Rwanda, Somalia, South Sudan, and northeastern Tanzania.
Conflict-related displacement from South Sudan to Ethiopia, Uganda, Sudan, and Kenya continues. Currently, 1.5 million people are displaced internally in South Sudan, and over 500,000 have migrated across borders. This will continue through at least June. A progressive deterioration in food insecurity for poor households and internally displaced persons (IDPs) in the Greater Upper Nile States, as well as in Lakes, Warrap, and Northern Bahr el Ghazal is expected in the coming months. Humanitarian assistance will mitigate Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes in some areas.