East Africa

East Africa
FOOD SECURITY ALERT UPDATE

October 9, 2024

Extreme food insecurity outcomes spread in Sudan, extending into pre-harvest period

This report provides an update to FEWS NET’s Sudan June 2024 to January 2025 Food Security Outlook, FEWS NET’s Sudan Food Security Alert issued on August 1, 2024, and FEWS NET’s Sudan Food Security Alert Update issued on September 5, 2024.

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Key Message Update September 2024 Famine (IPC Phase 5) continues in part of Al Fasher, Sudan, amid concerns for deterioration in the Horn Download the report
  • The last three consecutive seasons of average to above-average rainfall in East Africa have enhanced crop and livestock production, increasing access to food and income in the region. Despite these improvements, humanitarian needs remain high in several parts of the region, driven by conflict and displacement, devastating floods, and very high food prices. In Sudan, Famine (IPC Phase 5) is ongoing in Zamzam camp for internally displaced persons (IDPs) and is possibly ongoing in Abu Shouk and Al Salam IDP camps in Al Fasher locality in North Darfur. Meanwhile, there is a risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) in several other parts of Sudan and in South Sudan. Forecast La Niña-induced below-average rainfall from October to December will likely limit late 2024 crop and livestock production, particularly in the eastern Horn. Humanitarian food assistance needs are likely to be exacerbated by ongoing flooding and conflict-related displacement amid declining humanitarian assistance.  
  • In Sudan, the humanitarian crisis continues to deteriorate at the peak of the lean season  amid ongoing conflict, devastating floods, and soaring prices. The tightening blockade and ongoing fighting in Al Fasher, North Darfur, has severely limited the delivery of commercial and humanitarian supplies, and data collected by Médicins Sans Frontiers (MSF) confirms that acute malnutrition rates remain above the Famine (IPC Phase 5) thresholds in Zamzam camp for internally displaced persons. While data remain limited for nearby Abu Shouk and Al Salam IDP camps, ground information triangulated with satellite imagery analysis suggests significant civilian movement away from these camps and towards Zamzam, driven by the heavy fighting in the city and likely hope for better protection and access to services in Zamzam. Meanwhile, FEWSNET is also increasingly concerned that extreme acute food insecurity outcomes are occurring among the internally displaced populations in the besieged areas of Dilling and possibly Kadugli of South Kordofan. FEWS NET urges government and humanitarian actors not to wait for confirmation of Famine (IPC Phase 5) in additional areas to take immediate action to facilitate large-scale, sustained delivery of food and nutrition assistance that saves lives.
  • In Ethiopia, the ongoing 2024 meher harvest is moderately improving food security conditions for millions of people across the country. With the harvest underway, food security outcomes across much of the north are to improve to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Stressed (IPC Phase 2), while outcomes in much of central and eastern Ethiopia will improve to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Minimal (IPC Phase 1). However, Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are expected to persist in pastoral areas of Afar through at least early 2025, where households have low livestock holdings. In pastoral south and southeast areas, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are anticipated to persist as access to food and income from livestock still needs multiple seasons to recover to normal levels following the 2020-2023 drought. 
  • In Somalia, significantly below-average gu harvests in July, followed by anticipated below-average deyr harvests in January due to the forecasted La Niña-induced rainfall deficits in late 2024, are expected to limit food availability and access. Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected across most pastoral areas as households continue to slowly recover from past droughts, while Crisis (IPC Phase 3) will persist in most agropastoral and riverine areas through January 2025 due to the multiple consecutive poor harvests. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are expected to persist in settlements hosting displaced populations.  In Kenya, ongoing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes in the flood-affected riverine areas of Garissa and Tana River counties are likely to continue through January 2025, as household access to food and income remains constrained. In pastoral areas, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes persist with the worst affected households in Turkana and Marsabit continuing to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes through at least January. In marginal agricultural areas, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are driven by declining household food stocks from the below-average long rains production, and below-average incomes that limit household access to food. Anticipated below-average rainfall during the October to December short rains season will likely slow the recent drought recovery in crop and livestock productivity, particularly in eastern Kenya.
  • In South Sudan, Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes remain widespread at the peak of the main rainfall season in September, driven by the expanding floods, deteriorating macroeconomic conditions, extremely high food prices, conflict, and high returnee burden in the northern counties. Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) outcomes are likely persisting among some households in hard-to-reach areas of Pibor, among returnees and refugees in transit areas, including in Renk, Rubkona, and Aweil East, and likely among some displaced households in the most severely flood-affected areas of Jonglei, Unity, Warrap, and parts of Upper Nile and Northern Bahr el Ghazal.
  • In Uganda, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are likely to persist in northern bimodal areas through October, improving to Minimal (IPC Phase 1) from November to January, when second season harvests will improve access to food and income. In Karamoja, food security is improving following a near-average harvest; however, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) persists in northern and eastern Karamoja, where harvests were less favorable and alternative income sources are limited. In refugee settlements, area-level Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes will persist through January 2025, amid constrained access to income and productive land coupled with poor first season harvests, particularly in the north. In Burundi, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are persisting in the Imbo Plains and the Northern Lowlands, where household food stocks are depleted from the 2024 Season B harvest. Meanwhile, in the north, irregular Season A rainfall and limited cross-border trade with Rwanda have further reduced income and purchasing power for households, limiting their access to food and driving Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes.  For the rest of the country, Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are anticipated, driven by the near-average Season B agricultural production and stable income sources.
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East Africa (June 2024 - January 2025)
Food Security Classification data View all East Africa Food Security Classification data
East Africa Acute Food Insecurity Classification (May 2024 - September 2024)

Forward-looking analysis representing the most likely food security outcomes for the near term (May 2024) and medium term (June 2024 - September 2024) periods.

 East Africa Acute Food Insecurity Classification Shapefile May 2024 (.zip) (ZIP) East Africa Acute Food Insecurity Classification May 2024 (.geojson) (GeoJSON) Near Term Projection: May 2024 (.png) (PNG) Medium Term Projection: June 2024 - September 2024 (.png) (PNG) Near Term Projection: May 2024 (.kml) (KML) Medium Term Projection: June 2024 - September 2024 (.kml) (KML) East Africa Acute Food Insecurity Classification (August 2023 - January 2024)

Forward-looking analysis representing the most likely food security outcomes for the near term (August 2023 - September 2023) and medium term (October 2023 - January 2024) periods.

 East Africa Acute Food Insecurity Classification Shapefile August 2023 (.zip) (ZIP) East Africa Acute Food Insecurity Classification August 2023 (.geojson) (GeoJSON) Near Term Projection: August 2023 - September 2023 (.png) (PNG) Medium Term Projection: October 2023 - January 2024 (.png) (PNG) Near Term Projection: August 2023 - September 2023 (.kml) (KML) Medium Term Projection: October 2023 - January 2024 (.kml) (KML) East Africa Acute Food Insecurity Classification (April 2024 - September 2024)

Forward-looking analysis representing the most likely food security outcomes for the near term (April 2024 - May 2024) and medium term (June 2024 - September 2024) periods.

 East Africa Acute Food Insecurity Classification Shapefile April 2024 (.zip) (ZIP) East Africa Acute Food Insecurity Classification April 2024 (.geojson) (GeoJSON) Near Term Projection: April 2024 - May 2024 (.png) (PNG) Medium Term Projection: June 2024 - September 2024 (.png) (PNG) Near Term Projection: April 2024 - May 2024 (.kml) (KML) Medium Term Projection: June 2024 - September 2024 (.kml) (KML)
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