Burundi

• Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected in the Northern and Eastern Lowlands and Imbo Plains during the lean period of October 2024 to January 2025. The depletion of household food stocks and increased reliance on markets, combined with rising food prices and limited income access, are reducing food access in these areas. The situation is exacerbated by below-average agricultural opportunities in the north and east due to La Niña, the closure of borders with Rwanda in the north, and the effects on both agricultural and non-agricultural labor opportunities due to flooding and the overflow of Lake Tanganyika in the Imbo Plains.
• Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are projected to persist in the north and east during the post-harvest period from February to May 2025. Given the anticipated below-average 2025 Season A crop production, household food stocks are expected to be rapidly depleted, maintaining below-average food access for poor and very poor households that are already facing rising food prices and diminished agricultural labor opportunities.
• Among the populations of highest concern are refugees, returnees who exhausted the three-month food assistance received up on arrival, flood-affected IDPs, and very poor households in the north, east, and west. FEWS NET estimates that between 500,000 and 749,999 people are likely to need urgent humanitarian food assistance to prevent Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes, with October to December being the peak period.
• Increased food consumption gaps are anticipated for refugees and IDPs between October 2024 and May 2025, due to reduced levels of humanitarian assistance. Due to resource constraints, refugees are currently receiving only 70 percent of their monthly food rations, and food assistance will either be further reduced or remain at the same level during the analysis period.

The analysis in this report is based on information available as of October 31, 2024.