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Remotely Monitored Country
Key Message Update

More refugees returning due to improving civil and food security in Burundi

January 2018

January 2018

February - May 2018

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Rains have been above average in January, ending the December dry spell, which is likely to lead to average Season 2018A harvests, already underway. Most poor households are expected to remain in Stressed (IPC Phase 2); however, in Gihanga Commune in Bubanza Province, maize production is likely to be below average due to a more severe dry spell and Fall Armyworm infestations, causing some poor households to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) through the lean season in May. 

  • As household and commercial stocks replenished with the initial harvest, staple food prices seasonally eased in January. Despite this decline, the overall prices of staples are likely to remain above five-year averages through May given the ongoing macroeconomic difficulties (low foreign currency reserves and a deteriorating national currency), limiting regional food imports and, occasionally, disrupting fuel imports.  

  • Largely due to improved civil and food security, the number of IDPs, estimated at 180,000 by IOM, continues to decrease. The number of voluntary returnees from Tanzania refugee camps exceeded 11,000 from September to December 2017, and approximately 60,000 more are expected in 2018. WFP provides all returnees with three-months of rations to facilitate their transition. These trends may reverse if political violence flares up again in Burundi, following successive breakdowns in peace talks. 

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 34 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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