Following the start of Meher harvest, most parts of Tigray, Amhara, Oromia, Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples’ Region (SNNPR), and western, surplus-producing areas are currently at Minimal (IPC Phase 1). The extended rains in October allowed late-planted Meher crops in the northeastern highlands in Amhara and Tigray Regions and in the central and eastern parts of Oromia Region to reach maturity. In general, near-average Meher production is anticipated at the national level.
However, below-average production of long-cycle maize and sorghum is expected in some areas, including the Tekeze River catchment in eastern Amhara and southern Tigray, central and eastern Oromia, and areas along the Rift Valley in SNNPR. Most of these areas will remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) or move into Crisis (IPC Phase 3) between now and March as their households stocks are exhausted earlier than usual.
In most southern and southeastern pastoral areas, the October to December Deyr/Hageya rains started on time, but there was a dry spell at the end of October. However, in southern Borena Zone along the border with Kenya and Galadi and Bokeh Woredas in Dollo (formerly Warder) Zone, the start was late and cumulative rainfall has so far been below average. As a result, livestock body conditions have not yet recovered from the dry season, and access to milk has remained low. In October, some livestock deaths were reported in Dollo and Afder Zones of Somali Region during the start of the rains due livestock being very weak. Livestock prices have also declined in these areas since October 2014.
In addition to poor livestock body conditions, livestock prices has significantly declined in Dollo Zone due to decline in demand. A few large-scale traders that once worked in northwestern Somalia bordering Dollo are now primarily sourcing livestock elsewhere. Similarly, livestock prices declined in most of Borena and Guji Zones due to the poor livestock body conditions. Accordingly, household income and food access declined. Most pastoral areas in Afar, Somali, Borena Zone, and South Omo Zone are currently at Stressed (IPC Phase 2). However, despite some light Dadaa rains as are typical this time of year, northeastern and southern Afar remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).