Following the longer than usual dry season, due to the early end of the previous rains, the March to May Belg/Gu/Genna/Diraac/Sugum rains may be below average, not being sufficient to replenish water points and regenerate pasture and browse in pastoral areas. In particular, in areas where the June to September rains or October to December rains were below average, livestock body conditions and productivity will further deteriorate, reducing access to food and income. As a result, poor households in northeastern Afar and the lowlands of Borena Zone in Oromia will remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) through June. Furthermore, food security in southern Afar expected to decline from Stressed (IPC phase 2!) in February to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) from May to June.
Due to average Meher production, households’ food access and nutrition improved in most Meher-producing areas. However, Meher production was below average in some areas, and as staple food prices seasonally rise and food stocks are depleted, households will remain or become food insecure in the lowlands in the Tekeze River catchment in Wag Himra and North Gondar Zones in Amhara Region and in the lowlands in East and West Hararghe and West Arsi Zones in Oromia Region.