Ethiopia flag

Presence Country
Key Message Update

Increased, sustained assistance needed to mitigate large food consumption gaps in Somali Region

September 2017

September 2017

Ethiopia ML1

October 2017 - January 2018

Ethiopia ML2

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Humanitarian assistance remains delayed in parts of Somali Region in September. At present, needs are likely greater than current humanitarian assistance programming. A sustained increase in humanitarian assistance is needed in order to prevent food consumption gaps from widening and to prevent households from moving into Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5).   

  • Based on recent model forecasts and an increased likelihood of La Niña development during late 2017, October to December 2017 Deyr rainfall is likely to be below average in southeastern Ethiopia. Following two consecutively very poor seasons, a poor Deyr 2017 season could lead to even further reductions in food access for many households, and drive further deteriorations in food security. 

  • In most high-producing areas of Ethiopia, Kiremt seasonal rainfall has been favorable for crop. However, infestations of Fall Armyworm (FAW) in western areas, as well as dry spells in some eastern and southern areas of the country may lead to below-average Meher production in some areas.

  • Parts of Amhara, Tigray, northeastern SNNPR, and eastern Oromia are expected to remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) until Meher harvests begin in October. However, Meher harvests, coupled with seasonal increases in labor income from cereal and cash crop harvests, should drive improvements in household food access and acute food insecurity outcomes to Minimal (IPC Phase 1) or Stressed (IPC Phase 2) levels between October 2017 and January 2018. 

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 34 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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