Presence Country
Climate Change

A Westward Extension of the Tropical Pacific Warm Pool Leads to March through June Drying in Kenya and Ethiopia

September 2010

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Partners: 
USGS

Summary

An estimated 14.3 million people are currently (July 2010) food insecure in Kenya and Ethiopia, and the U.S. government has spent more than $972 million on food aid in these two countries since 2009 (USAID, 2010). This insecurity stems from recent drought and rapid population growth that has outpaced agricultural development (Funk and others, 2008; Funk and Brown, 2009). Previous work by Funk and others (2005, 2008) and Verdin and others (2005) has linked drought conditions in Kenya and Ethiopia with warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Indian Ocean. Recent work has shown that Indian Ocean SSTs substantially affect rainfall in this region from March through June (Funk and others, 2008; Funk and Verdin, 2009). This season is known as the 'long rains' in Kenya and the 'Belg' rains in Ethiopia.

Periodically, FEWS NET publishes products related to the impact of the changing climate on food security. They include thematic reports, research papers, and scholarly articles ranging from such topics as rising sea surface temperatures to new rainfall patterns to water availability.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 34 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.