Key Message Update

October to December rains very poor in the Horn; conflict drives urgent needs in South Sudan and Yemen

December 2016

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
National Parks/Reserves
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.IPC phase classifications for concentrations of displaced people are included in Somalia, Sudan and Uganda country maps.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Despite the ongoing harvest, persistent insecurity continues to drive Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes in much of South Sudan. Many internally displaced persons in parts of Western Bahr el Ghazal, Unity, and Greater Equatoria already in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) have limited access to their farms or humanitarian assistance. Extreme levels of acute food insecurity are expected in Unity and Northern Bahr El Ghazal states, where poor households with little harvests could face Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) during the atypically long February to July lean season, in the absence of humanitarian assistance.

  • A major food security emergency continues in Yemen as an estimated seven to 10 million people face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse acute food insecurity. In Ta’izz and Al Hudaydah, conflict-related disruptions to livelihoods are causing Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes, with elevated levels of acute malnutrition and excess mortality likely. Although data is limited, some populations could face Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) between October 2016 and May 2017 in areas where conflict has most restricted livelihoods and humanitarian access.

  • October to December 2016 rainfall started nearly a month late and was well below average across large parts of Somalia, southern and southeastern Ethiopia, northeastern Kenya, and parts of northeastern Tanzania. Forecasts for below-average Gu/Genna/long rains between March and May 2017 are likely to result in further deteriorations in livestock body conditions, prices, and productivity, as well as below-average production in crop-producing areas. Emergency (IPC Phase 4) is likely in some areas of Somalia, and among some households in Ethiopia, while Crisis is expected for other areas of Somalia, southeastern Ethiopia, and northeastern Kenya through May 2017.

  • In Burundi, poor seasonal progress in parts of the eastern lowlands is leading to below-average production. In some of these areas, poor households are likely to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes by the peak of the minor lean season in April/May 2017. Meanwhile, the number of Burundian refugees in neighboring countries remains high, but the flow of refugees from Burundi has reduced significantly during December, according to UNHCR. In Tanzania, in the absence of additional funding, pipeline breaks are expected to significantly reduce humanitarian assistance to Burundian refugees, who will likely be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) between February and May 2017. 

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 34 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.