April to June Gu rainfall was near average to above average

Moderate Todob rains fell in late March. Then the Gu 2015 rains started on time in mid-April with typical distribution and intensity. Overall, they were unevenly, temporally distributed, and they ended early in early May in some parts of the North and most southern and central regions.  Cumulative April to June Gu rainfall was largely near average to above average in terms of amount. Spatial coverage was mostly typical. There was below-average rainfall in agropastoral areas, Guban Pastoral livelihood zone of the Northwest, Coastal Deeh Pastoral livelihood zone in the southern and central regions, parts of Bari, Hiraan, Gedo, and Middle and Lower Juba, and some parts of the Sool Plateau in Sanaag (Figure 2). The early cessation of Gu rains in early May was followed by cool, dry winds that accelerated the depletion of water sources and deterioration of pasture. From April to June, cumulative rainfall was mostly 50-to-100 millimeters (mm) above the 2001 to 2014 mean in most of the southern and central regions and in some parts of the northern regions, despite the short duration of the rains this year (Figure 2).

In the Northwest, the rains continued to fall in late June. Field reports and satellite estimates indicate moderate rains fell in pastoral areas of Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer, Sool, and some parts of Sanaag Regions, and in some localized agropastoral areas in Hargeysa and Gabiley Districts (Figure 1). These helped further improve pasture and water conditions and facilitated additional establishment of crops. However, most agropastoral areas in Awdal, Togdheer, and Woqooyi Galbeed had limited rainfall, retarding crop growth and pasture regeneration. Much of the maize is showing signs of water stress or is wilting.

In the Northeast, light to moderate rains were received in March in parts of Bari Region, followed by a long dry spell in April. However, between mid-May and early June, moderate- to light-intensity rains were reported in some pastoral areas in Bari. Moderate rainfall with typical distribution fell in the Hawd and Addun Pastoral livelihood zone in Nugal and northern Mudug Regions. In Northern Inland Pastoral livelihood zone in Bari Region, considerably low total rainfall for the season compelled households to migrate their livestock to neighboring areas in the Hawd and Addun Pastoral livelihood zone in Nugal, northern Mudug, and southern Sanaag.

In the central regions, most pastoral areas had well distributed, moderate amounts of rain rainfall, but the temporal distribution was more uneven than usual. Significant precipitation fell in cowpea-growing agropastoral areas. The rains replenished both natural water catchments and berkads. Pasture and browse conditions improved, and crops developed normally. An exception was Coastal Deeh Pastoral livelihood zone where rains were generally lighter. Early cessation of the rains in early May followed by cold and dry Xagaa winds have led to faster than usual deterioration of rangeland conditions and accelerated depletion of water sources in pastoral areas.

In the South, most of Lower Juba, Middle Shabelle, and Bay, and parts of Lower Shabelle, Middle Juba, and Hiraan received fairly well distributed, near average to above average amounts of Gu rainfall. These rains improved the quality and increased the availability of pasture, browse, and water in most rural areas. These rains also supported crop development. However, dry spells and the early cessation of the rains led to some crops wilting. Other crops may only be consumable as fodder, especially in agropastoral areas of Hiraan, and some parts of Bay, Bakool, Gedo, Lower Shabelle, and Middle Juba. Similarly, not all areas had the typical seasonal increase in the availability of rangeland and water resources. In Coastal Deeh Pastoral livelihood zone and adjacent agropastoral areas, both pasture growth and crop development showed less vegetation than usual (Figure 3). Coastal areas in the South, neighboring agropastoral areas, and some small pockets in the North may continue to receive rain over the next week (Figure 4).

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