Light to moderate Deyr rains received in most parts of the South in late October

Both satellite images and ground reports show that moderate rains, ranging from 10 to 25 millimeters (mm), were received in many parts of the southern regions. However, contrary to forecasts, most parts of the North, the central regions, parts of Lower and Middle Juba, and Gedo Regions were dry during in the last ten days of October (Figure 1). The rainfall estimate (RFE2) for October 20 to 31 shows that the rainfall was 10 to 50 mm below the 2000-to-2013 average in Lower Juba (Figure 2).

In the Northwest, both satellite rainfall estimates and ground reports indicate most of the areas were dry from October 21 to 31. Field reports indicate that up to 25 mm localized light to moderate rains were received in some parts of Sool and Sanaag Regions, which improved rangeland conditions. In Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, and Togdheer Regions no rains were reported during the last ten days of October. However, because of earlier unusual rains and the previous Karan rains, water and pasture availability are near average in most areas. Normal migration patterns have been reported with pastoralists who had out-migrated now returned to rangelands closer to homesteads.

In the Northeast, only light showers of up to five mm were received in parts of Qardho District, which were insufficient to alleviate water shortages and improve pasture conditions. All other parts of Northeast including Bari and Nugal Regions remained dry from October 20 to 31.

In the central regions, most of Galgaduud and Mudug Regions were dry. However, the impact of the earlier rains in mid-October continued its positive impact on pasture conditions and water availability. Water was easier to find than before the rains in these regions. In Hiraan Region, moderate precipitation was reported in most pastoral areas, which improved pasture conditions and partially replenished natural water catchments and man-made berkads. However, in agropastoral and riverine zones in Hiraan, there was only very light, localized rains. Some crops are already showing signs of moisture stress. Farmers in riverine areas in Buloburte and Jalalaqsi Districts have started using irrigation.

In the South, in most of the agricultural areas, rains fell during the last ten days in October. Light to moderate rains were received in many parts of Bay, Bakool, and Lower and Middle Shabelle Regions. In most agropastoral and pastoral areas, recent rains supported crop germination and increased pasture and water availability. Rain gauge readings from Baidoa in Bay Region and Xudur in Bakool Region indicate 55 mm and 118 mm of rainfall with six and five rainy days, respectively. The station located in Afgoi in Lower Shabelle recorded 27 mm of rainfall with two rainy days. However, most of Lower and Middle Juba have had dry weather since early October. Rain gauge stations located in this region have recorded no Deyr rainfall, resulting in poor access to pasture and water. As a result of heavy rains upstream in Ethiopia, water levels in the Juba River have risen. This resulted in flooding, which destroyed crops in some riverine areas in Middle and Lower Juba Regions. Flood waters are preventing continuation of agricultural activities.

The satellite-derived eMODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) Anomaly indicates that vegetation levels have improved this season in most parts of the North, largely due to recent and earlier rains. However, vegetation remains below the 2001-to-2010 mean in most parts of the South as well as parts of the central regions (Figure 3). The seven-day weather forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association’s Climate Prediction Center (NOAA/CPC) indicates moderate rains of up to 30 mm are likely from November 4 to 10 in most of the southern regions. The rest of the country is likely to experience unusually dry weather (Figure 4).

For more rain gauge data, please, contact Hydro@faoswalim.org or visit www.faoswalim.org.