First Deyr rains in 2014 moderate to good in most parts of Somalia

Slightly earlier than normal Deyr rains started between October 1 and 10, 2014, the first dekad of October. They varied in terms of amount, temporal distribution, and coverage across the country. The moderate to good rains ranged from 25 to 150 millimeters (mm) although localized areas in the central regions of Mudug and Galgaduud, Nugal, and Togdheer Regions received between 200 and 350 mm of rain (Figure 1). The rainfall estimate (RFE2) for October 1 to 10 show that the rainfall received in most areas of the North, the central regions, Hiraan, Bakool, and some parts of Bay and Middle Shabelle Regions were 25 to 150 mm above the 2000-2013  average (Figure 2).

In the Northwest, light to moderate but localized rains were received in late September. Most areas had average to above-average rains in early October. In addition, Guban Pastoral, West Golis Pastoral, Northwest Agropastoral livelihood zones received unusual, light to moderate Deyr rains as these areas are typically dry at this time of year. The rains partially replenished water sources and supported pasture regeneration. In the Northeast, most areas received light to moderate rains, but in the Dharoor Valley and Coastal Deeh Pastoral livelihood zone in Bari Region, only localized showers fell.

In many parts of the central regions, light to moderate rains were received. Light rains with average spatial distribution fell in Hobyo District, Coastal Deeh Pastoral livelihood zone in Galgaduud and southern Mudug, and some parts of Addun Pastoral livelihood zone. However, most parts of the Hawd, the cowpea belt, and other parts of Addun Pastoral livelihood zone received moderate rainfall. These rains supported the germination of cowpeas and have had a noticeable impact on water availability and pasture regeneration. Rain gauges in Haradhere and Eldhere recorded 14 mm and 20 mm of rain, respectively, with one to two rainy days.

In the South, satellite-derived rainfall estimates and field reports indicate that most pastoral and agricultural areas in Hiraan, Middle Shabelle, Bay, and Bakool Regions recorded light to moderate rainfall ranging from 10 to 50 mm with average spatial coverage. Field reports confirmed that, generally, rains were localized and poorly distributed in both pastoral and agricultural areas of Lower Shabelle, southern Gedo, and the Juba Regions. Rain gauges in Bardaale in Bay Region and Xudur in Bakool Region recorded 10 mm and 54 mm of rainfall, respectively. In Lower Shabelle Region, rain gauges in Janaale and Afgoye recorded 19 mm and 14 mm with one and two rainy days, respectively. Hiraan Region received light to moderate rains, but there was almost no rain in Buloburte and Jalalaqsi Districts. Rain gauges in Beletweyne, Buloburte, and Jalalaqsi recorded 72 mm, 5 mm, and 2 mm, respectively, with one to two rainy days. Rains have allowed riverine farmers in Beledweyne District to start planting, and they have supported pasture regeneration and refilled water sources.

The current satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) shows below-average vegetation conditions in most parts of the South (Figure 3). This is due to the especially dry July to September Xagaa season, the failure of Kalahan rains at the end of September, and continued dry weather in many areas during the first third of October. The seven-day weather forecast for October 15 to 21 indicates there will be less rain than recent weeks in northern Somalia, but in southern and central areas increased amounts of rain are forecast. Light to moderate rains are also expected to be received in the Ethiopian highlands. Given the forecast, it is expected that the river water levels will rise over the coming days (Figure 4). FEWS NET in collaboration with FSNAU, SWALIM, and other partners will closely monitor the progress of the October to December Deyr rains and will issue an updated Seasonal Monitor every ten days.

For more rain gauge data, please, contact Hydro@faoswalim.org or visit www.faoswalim.org.