Presence Country
Supply and Market Outlook

Somalia Supply and Market Outlook

February 2017

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance

Key Messages

  • The current Deyr harvest (January 2017) is estimated to be 75 percent below average. Domestic staple food supply for 2017 is expected to be well below average and similar to that of 2011 levels following consecutive recent below average harvests and in anticipation of a below average Gu harvest in July 2017.

  • Maize and sorghum prices recently increasing rapidly in the Southern and Central surplus-producing regions, where maize and sorghum are the dominant staple foods. Maize and sorghum prices are likely to continue to increase atypically and remain well above average, especially in the Southern region, until the Gu harvest in July. 

  • International markets are well-supplied with rice and wheat, resulting in below average prices. Rice and wheat imports into Somalia are expected to surpass the record-high levels of 2011, but at relatively low price levels. These imports will help fill the domestic staple food supply gaps and moderate domestic food price increases, keeping them below 2011 levels. 

  • Poor pasture and livestock availability are expected to result in poor livestock body conditions and relatively low prices (per head) in 2017.  Livestock to grain terms of trade are therefore expected to be below average, especially in Central and Northern Somalia. 

  • Close monitoring of grain import volumes as well as staple food and livestock price trends is essential in the coming months. 

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 34 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.