Supply and Market Outlook

East Africa Regional Supply and Market Outlook

March 2017

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
National Parks/Reserves
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.IPC phase classifications for concentrations of displaced people are included in Somalia, Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda country maps.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • This report summarizes the supply and market outlook for maize grain and dry beans in the east African countries of Uganda, Tanzania, Kenya, Rwanda, and Burundi. Preliminary production estimates suggest that, at the regional level, aggregate maize production for the 2016/17 marketing year is expected to be below-average, while bean production is projected to be above-average. The region is expected to maintain a maize surplus, however at well below-average levels, and an above-average bean deficit through September 2017.

  • The region’s maize surplus countries, Uganda and Tanzania, are estimated to have below-average exportable maize surpluses (by approximately 50 percent) through September 2017. Current nominal and export parity maize prices are above-average in Uganda and Tanzania, and are expected to remain at elevated levels through September 2017.

  • Bean supplies in Uganda, the only bean surplus country studied, are below-average and may not be sufficient to support typical export volumes (approximately 200,000 MT on average) in 2017. Kenya and Tanzania have current and projected typical bean deficit levels. Bean supplies elsewhere in the region are projected to be adequate to cover requirements through September 2017. Current bean prices are average to above-average across the region, and are especially high in Uganda, Rwanda, and Burundi.

  • Maize and bean prices are projected to remain at elevated levels in all countries, except Kenya, through June/July when the next harvests begin. Given this year’s supply situation, the introduction of policies to protect local markets are likely. Monitoring regional trade policies (including export restrictions in Uganda and Tanzania), demand levels from the greater region (including the DRC, Malawi, and South Sudan), as well as the performance of upcoming harvests is essential in 2017. This analysis will be updated to reflect updated information about production and trade prospects following planned assessments in Uganda (March) and Tanzania (June).

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 34 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.