Presence Country
Climate Change

A climate trend analysis of Sudan

June 2011

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Partners: 
USGS

Key Messages

  • Summer rains in western and southern Sudan have declined by 10–20 percent since the mid-1970s.

  • Observed warming of more than 1 degree Celsius is equivalent to another 10–20 percent reduction in rainfall for crops.

  • The warming and drying have impacted southern Darfur and areas around Juba.

  • Rainfall declines west of Juba threaten southern Sudan’s future food production prospects.

  • In many cases, areas with changing climate are coincident with zones of substantial conflict, suggesting some degree of association; however, the contribution of climate change to these conflicts is not currently understood.

  • Rapid population growth and the expansion of farming and pastoralism under a more variable climate regime could dramatically increase the number of at-risk people in Sudan over the next 20 years.

Periodically, FEWS NET publishes products related to the impact of the changing climate on food security. They include thematic reports, research papers, and scholarly articles ranging from such topics as rising sea surface temperatures to new rainfall patterns to water availability.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 35 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.