Remotely Monitored Country
Key Message Update

Rainfall in May improves Msimu and Masika harvest prospects

May 2017

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Despite early season rainfall deficits, favorable rainfall in May has increased Msimu and Masika harvest prospects, and production is now expected to be slightly above average. However, bimodal areas of northern Tanzania, including Arusha, Kagera, Kilimanjaro, and Tanga, are expected to remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) until the arrival of the Masika harvest in July, and some very poor households will face food consumption gaps until this time. Food access will likely improve slightly in June, though, as favorable Msimu production in southern unimodal highlands will lead to lower national food prices, improving household food access.

  • Staple food prices remain well above average across key markets in northeastern areas. In April, the retail price of maize was 120 percent above average in Arusha. Between March and April, the price of maize declined six percent in Mbeya, which is located in the surplus-producing southern highlands, but remains 87 percent above average. The May to August Msimu harvest is anticipated to increase national cereal supplies, leading to lower prices throughout the country. Additionally, if regional trade is unrestricted, Tanzania’s production is also expected to lower regional maize prices. 

  • The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) reports that as of April 30, northwestern Tanzania is hosting 311,110 refugees, 238,306 of whom are from Burundi and were displaced after April 2015. While funding constraints led to a 40 percent reduction in food rations in April, funding allowed for a 90 percent ration in May. USAID’s Food for Peace has contributed $17.3 million, but large funding shortfalls remain. Most refugees are Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) in the presence of humanitarian assistance. Those who arrived after Maiska planting and have fewer income-earning opportunities or access to production are likely in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).  

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 34 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.