Price Watch

December 2016 Global Price Watch

December 2016

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance

Key Messages

  • In West Africa, regional staple food production during the 2016/17 marketing year is expected to be well above average. Staple food prices declined and remained near average as supplies increased in November with the arrival of recent harvests and continued international rice and wheat imports. Persistent depreciation of the Naira (NGN) has led to price increases across Nigeria, especially for rice, and reduced purchasing power for Sahelian livestock and cash crops.

  • In East Africa, staple food prices declined seasonally as supplies increased from ongoing harvests, except in Uganda and Somalia where recent harvests were below-average, resulting in atypical price increases. Somalia’s January 2017 (Deyr) harvest is also expected to be below average. Prices remain above average across the region, especially in South Sudan and Somalia. In Yemen, the availability of adequate food supplies past January is uncertain as the Central Bank of Yemen stopped issuing credit to importers due to lack of foreign currency. Insecurity also continues to disrupt markets in Yemen.

  • In Southern Africa, regional maize availability is well below-average during the 2016/17 marketing year following consecutive years of below average production. Imports by South Africa and Zimbabwe from well-supplied international markets have offset a portion of the regional deficit. Market supplies declined in November with the progression of the lean season. Maize prices are above their respective 2015 and five-year average levels region wide. While prices remain high and variable in Mozambique, security conditions have improved along key marketing corridors, facilitating trade. 

  • In Central America, maize and bean availability increased with supplies from the extended Primera harvest and the start of the Postrera harvest across the region. Maize prices seasonally declined or were stable, while bean prices were mixed. Markets in southwestern Haiti continued to recover from damages by Hurricane Mathew. Locally-produced bean and maize prices increased as supplies remained limited, while imported commodity prices and availability remained stable.

  • In Central Asia, average regional harvests and above-average stocks sustained adequate supplies. Prices were below 2015 levels in Kazakhstan, above-average in Tajikistan, and near average in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

  • International staple food markets are well supplied. Regional price indices reflect high prices in East Africa. Rice and maize prices fell, soybean prices increased, and wheat price trends were mixed. Crude oil prices remained well below-average.

About Price Watch

Price Watch offers a monthly summary and outlook on global, regional and national trends of key commodity prices in FEWS NET countries. Analysis may touch on global issues, such as fuel prices or exchange rates, if they are likely to influence staple food prices in FEWS NET countries. The accompanying Price Watch Annex details price trends by country.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 35 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.