Price Watch

July 2017 Global Price Watch

July 2017

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • In West Africa, regional staple food production during the 2016/17 marketing year was well above average. International rice and wheat imports continue to support market supplies. Prices continued to increase seasonally in many areas with the progression of the lean season. Current market anomalies remain concentrated in the eastern marketing basin, including but not limited to: conflict-related market disruptions in the Lake Chad basin, localized above-average grain deficits in Niger, trade disruptions related to the depreciation of the Naira and various government measures.

  • In East Africa, staple food supplies remain tight and prices well above-average in South Sudan, Somalia, and Yemen. Markets remain severely disrupted by insecurity in Yemen and South Sudan. Import capacity in Yemen is uncertain, and food availability will likely remain constrained in the coming months. Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania, and Ethiopia are also facing below-average staple food supply and above-average prices following recent or ahead of forthcoming poor harvests.

  • In Southern Africa, maize availability is average to above average following recent regional harvests. Regional maize production prospects for the current season are good with record-high harvests anticipated in South Africa. Maize prices continued to decline in most countries in June and are below their respective 2016 levels in many areas. Maize grain is generally able to circulate between surplus and deficit areas without major trade restrictions.  The exception to these trends is in Tanzania, where measures are currently in place to limit exports and prices remain above average.

  • In Central America, staple food availability continued to decline following the end of the Postrera harvest and Apante harvest. Maize and bean prices were generally seasonally stable across the region, with varied trends compared to average levels. In Haiti, local maize and bean prices eased with progression of the Printemps harvests. Imported rice prices were stable while the Haitian gourde experienced a marginal depreciation against the USD.  

  • Central Asia sustained adequate supplies. Wheat prices in Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, and Afghanistan remained stable, but declined slightly in Pakistan with the arrival of the new harvest. Forecasts estimate that wheat harvests in Afghanistan, Kazakhstan and Pakistan will be slightly lower than in previous years. Intraregional trade is expected to fill staples’ deficits in importing countries.

  • International staple food markets remain well supplied. Maize prices fell while rice, wheat and soybean prices increased. Crude oil prices fell and remain well below average.

About Price Watch

Price Watch offers a monthly summary and outlook on global, regional and national trends of key commodity prices in FEWS NET countries. Analysis may touch on global issues, such as fuel prices or exchange rates, if they are likely to influence staple food prices in FEWS NET countries. The accompanying Price Watch Annex details price trends by country.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 34 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.