Price Watch

November 2017 Global Price Watch

November 2017

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • In West Africa, harvests across the Sahel were well underway in October. Aggregate regional staple food production for the 2017/18 marketing year is expected to be average to above average. Locally-produced grain prices declined seasonally in October, as post-harvest market sales and trade flows intensified. Trade opportunities with Nigeria continue to influence livestock market prices heavily in neighboring countries. Market anomalies remain mainly concentrated in the eastern marketing basin, including but not limited to: conflict-related market disruptions in the Lake Chad basin and trade disruptions related to the depreciation of the Naira and various government measures in Nigeria.

  • In East Africa, markets remain severely disrupted by insecurity and significant macro-economic issues in Yemen and South Sudan, impeding staple food supply access and putting upward pressure on prices. Staple food prices were generally stable, supported with supplies from recent harvests, or began to decline in October with the imminent start of a harvest in most of the region. Livestock prices were mixed, increasing in some markets due to improved body conditions and declining in others because of increased supply during low demand.

  • In Southern Africa, maize availability is average to above average following recent above average regional harvests. After reaching very high levels in 2016, maize prices were at or below their respective 2016 and average levels across much of the region in October. Maize grain is generally able to circulate between surplus and deficit areas without major trade restrictions within the region. Export parity prices are competitive, encouraging exports to East Africa (from Zambia, South Africa, and Malawi) and international markets (from South Africa).

  • In Central America, staple food availability remained high as the main maize harvest (Primera season), which is estimated to be average to above-average, came to an end in October. Maize and bean prices were generally seasonally stable or increasing ahead of the Postrera harvest, and near or below average levels across the region. In Haiti, local maize and bean supplies tightened further as été harvests did not result in lower prices. Imported rice prices increased significantly while the Haitian gourde experienced a slight appreciation against the USD.  

  • Central Asia sustained adequate supplies and intra-regional trade is expected to fill regional wheat deficits. Wheat prices remained stable though are below-average in the region’s largest exporter, Kazakhstan and above-average in Tajikistan.

  • International staple food markets remain well supplied. Rice prices fell, wheat prices were mixed, while maize and soybean prices increased. Crude oil prices rose for the third consecutive month to levels above October 2016 prices.

About Price Watch

Price Watch offers a monthly summary and outlook on global, regional and national trends of key commodity prices in FEWS NET countries. Analysis may touch on global issues, such as fuel prices or exchange rates, if they are likely to influence staple food prices in FEWS NET countries. The accompanying Price Watch Annex details price trends by country.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 34 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.