Afghanistan

• Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes are expected from October 2024 through January 2025 in the central highlands and northern areas of the country as the slow recovery from three years of consecutive drought continues. These outcomes are expected to expand during the peak of the lean season from February to May 2025 as household food stocks deplete and households become market dependent. Food aid is expected to mitigate food consumption deficits with Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes likely in some areas. In addition, households adversely impacted by floods during the summer in northeastern, northern, and western parts of the country lost some of their crops and livestock, and are expected to be in need of humanitarian food assistance. 
• The second season harvest is expected to support food consumption, especially in northern, eastern, and southern parts of the country, leading to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes from October 2024 to January 2025. Simultaneously, food consumption gaps are anticipated to be reduced in the central highlands as potato production and income from livestock is likely to meet essential food needs until January 2025. However, recent woodcutting bans to prevent deforestation in local communities in Paktika and Paktya provinces are reducing income sources, and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) is expected through the end of the outlook period. 
• The northeast, southeast, north, central highlands, and main urban areas remain the areas of highest concern due to recent floods, woodcutting bans, lower than normal 2024 harvest, and likely pressure of returnees from Pakistan and Iran. 
• Humanitarian food assistance needs are expected to increase during the winter and will reach its peak during February to April 2025 at around 8-8.99 million people. Agriculture and livestock-dependent households adversely impacted by the last three years of drought are the most vulnerable and are expected to face higher food insecurity. These households will not be able to meet their food needs due to below-average food stocks from own production and below-average income. 

The analysis in this report is based on information available as of October 28, 2024.