Scenario Development

Scenario Development: A hallmark of FEWS NET analysis

Guidance: Scenario Development for Food Security Early Warning
Food security in any country depends on more than rainfall and harvests. Staple food and commodity prices, seasonal labor demand, livestock health, government assistance and political conflict are just a few of the many factors that influence the ability of people to grow, buy, gather or otherwise access food. 
 
Given this complexity, it is impossible to forecast food insecurity with perfect accuracy. To minimize the uncertainty and increase the reliability of its analysis, FEWS NET uses a methodology known as scenario development.
 

What is Scenario Development?

Commonly used by planners, policy-makers and researchers of various disciplines, scenario development is a methodology for forecasting future events. It relies on analysis of the current situation, the creation of informed assumptions about the future, a comparison of their possible effects, and the likely responses of various actors. At its core, scenario development is an “if - then” statement-but one that gains rigor through analysis.
 

FEWS NET and Scenario Development

Every four months, FEWS NET analysts conduct scenario-building exercises to estimate food security outcomes for the coming eight months. Using a consistent eight-step process, analysts assess the current food security situation in areas of concern, make assumptions about the future, and consider how those assumptions might affect food and income sources for poor households. Then, based on the convergence of evidence, they determine the most likely scenario and classify the expected levels of food insecurity using the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC). Last, they identify major events or changes that could affect the outcome.
 
These scenarios form the basis of FEWS NET's Food Security Outlook reports, issued in February, June and October. In other ensuing months, developments and changes to the scenario are reported in Food Security Outlook Updates.
 

Why use this methodology?

Scenario development builds structure and logic into the analytic process. It reduces overreliance on expert judgment or too-simple projections of what could happen.  The methodology works particularly well in estimating food security outcomes because of our regular data collection. Each month, as new data becomes available, our analysts are able to improve their assumptions. When assumptions are strong, uncertainty decreases, and the likelihood of the scenario increases.
 
FEWS NET has used scenario building to:
  • Assess the impact of drought on poor farming households in Somalia
  • Estimate the effect of currency devaluation in Malawi on food security
  • Project impact of extensive flooding in Nigeria on the regional market
  • Understand the effects of coffee rust on labor dependent households in Central America

FEWS NET's scenario development methodology, step by step


 

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 34 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.