Acute food insecurity is likely to remain Minimal even with the lean season underway

• The lean season is underway and will continue through August. Acute food insecurity will likely remain Minimal (Phase 1, IPC 2.0) through the projection period, September 2013, as poor households are meeting their needs due to average to good income, average production and relatively accessible consumer prices. Food access from the Primera season will be accessible from August on.
• Forecasts indicate normal rainfall throughout July, leading to an average Primera harvest. A less dry than normal canícula (dry spell) is expected in July and localized areas may face rainfall deficits. Therefore, local yields may be reduced. A tropical cyclone is likely to reach the north coast in June and could impact local production.
• Coffee rust will reduce 2013/2014 harvest by at least 35 to 40 percent, consequently labor demand and wages are likely to reduce by at least 30 percent during the next harvest (October 2013 to– March 2014).

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• Acute food insecurity is likely to remain Minimal (Phase 1, IPC 2.0) through the end of the consumption year. Due to average to good income levels and accessible food prices, poor households are meeting their food and nonfood needs. These favorable conditions are likely to sustain poor households, even with the onset of the lean season in April.
• Coffee rust prevalence is three to four times higher than normal in some areas. About 25 percent of coffee plants are affected nationally. As a result, the 2013/2014 harvest and labor demand are likely to be significantly reduced.

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Food insecurity likely Minimal in 2013

• In general, Postrera rainfall was significantly better than initially expected nationwide. Near-average national Postrera (mainly red bean) harvests are expected.
• Poor rainfall was concentrated in surplus-production areas of Olancho and Colón, where the Postrera harvest will be below average.
• Acute food insecurity is likely to remain in phase 1: Minimal (IPC 2.0) levels through at least March 2013. The lean season will begin normally in April.

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In the South, where below-average 2012 Primera and Postrera harvests are likely to result in below-average own production and income from agricultural labor and crop sales, poor households may face an early start to the lean season in March 2013 instead of May as is usual. Phase 2: Stressed of the IPC 2.0 scale is likely in 2013. (September 2012)

Central and southern Honduras were worst-affected by below-average July-August rainfall. Primera harvests, primarily maize, are expected to be 40-50 percent of average in some areas. National Primera harvests, however, are likely to be moderately below average for white maize but significantly above average for red beans. (September 2012)

Forecasts for below-average Postrera rainfall season suggest that red bean harvests are unlikely to meet their full potential.The Postrera red bean harvest is likely to be below that of the past two years, but will still likely be better than the 2006 and 2009 analogue rainfall years due to significant increases in area planted. (September 2012)

The April-August/September Primera season rainfall has been below average and somewhat erratic with longer than usual dry spells in the far south (see: September 2012 Pentad 5 Water Resources Requirements Satisfaction Index), and temperatures have been unusually high, resulting in above-average water loss to soils and plants. Furthermore, over the past six years, the Honduran government had been delivering agricultural inputs for seasons, resulting in production increases. However, this year, Primera inputs were delivered late and mainly for red beans rather than maize, traditionally the primary Primera crop. As a result of these factors, the areas where production was lowest were marginal agro-industrial and timber-producing areas of central and southern Honduras (Choluteca, Valle, and southern parts of El Paraíso, Francisco Morazán and La Paz), where production may be as low as 50 percent of for white maize and 40 percent for beans of the recent average. Some surplus maize-producing areas of western Olancho and central parts of El Paraíso regions were also affected, but less-so. This year’s Primera harvests are significantly below last years’ harvests (17 percent for white maize and 27 percent for red beans) but this is not a good measure of the sufficiency of the harvest given that last year’s Primera was exceptionally good. This year, despite some locally severe losses, national Primera maize production is only 17 percent below the five-year average. Production of Primera red beans, however, will be almost 40 percent above average due to large increases in area planted over the last two years (due to input support and good prices) and the extra input support this year (as recovery for poor 2011 Postrera bean production). In fact, it is possible that some of the below-average maize harvest may be attributed to a shift in area planted from white maize to red beans. (September 2012)

Most farmers are preparing their land for the Postrera season, which is generally sown in September and harvested in December and January. The Meteorological Service (SMN) suggests that rainfall through the remainder of the season (Oct-Nov) will likely be below average, particularly in the same central, southern, and eastern regions that were affected by the erratic Primera rains. This is similar to 2006 or 2009 seasonal forecasts, when Primera maize harvests were relatively similar to those of 2012, but poor Postrera rainfall led to below-average yields, particularly for red beans, the most significant Postrera crop. Postrera red bean production will likely be significantly below the production of the past two years, when rainfall was more favorable and Postrera input support was much more substantial. However, given that production over the past two years has been so good with significant increases to area planted, the total 2012 Postrera may still be near average and significantly better than 2006 and 2009.(September 2012)

2012 prices for red beans have been about 20 percent below last year and the five year average so far due to the excellent 2011 Postrera harvests in the region. Prices for maize are near the five-year average. Prices of both maize and red beans were stable nationally between July and August. The exception is in areas of the South facing below-average Primera harvests, where prices increased significantly (10-20 percent) between July and August. In these areas, initial indications of September prices suggest the start of normal, seasonal decreases, but close monitoring is needed. Also, high prices for U.S. yellow maize for 2012/13 could result in a shift in demand (usually agro-industry) toward cheaper white maize. If so, prices for white maize could increase faster and rise higher than usual, particularly after January 2013. (September 2012)

The season for high labor demand for sugarcane, shrimp, watermelon, and coffee beans activities goes from October 2012 to April/May 2013 with a peak from November – March. Labor demand will likely be near normal for sugarcane (largest employer in the South), shrimp, and watermelon. However, information from the National Coffee Institution suggests that 2012/13 coffee harvests (in the West where rainfall was good) are likely to be significantly above average, leading to above-average labor demand. (September 2012)

Own-production constitutes only 20 percent of poor households’ annual food consumption in southern Honduras. They rely primarily on the Primera harvest between August and October, phasing in purchases between October and the Postrera harvest in December. They typically follow a similar pattern of mixing own production and purchases between December and March. This year, low Primera production, low prices for the Primera red beans, and the anticipated slightly larger than usual increase in cereal prices beginning in 2013 may result in above-average food expenditures particularly for maize purchases beginning in October through the end of the consumption year in July/August 2013. Households will likely be able to meet food and non-food needs through at least March with income from the sugarcane, coffee, shrimp, and melon harvests. In the South, below-average harvests may result in below-average income from crop sales as well, poor households may face an early start to the lean season in March instead of May as is usual. IPC 2.0 Phase 2: Stressed is likely in these areas in 2013. (September 2012)

The food security conditions in Honduras are generally stable in most parts of the country; although households from livelihood zone 5 (Departments of Choluteca and Valle) are currently experiencing the lean season and have depleted food reserves. In these areas, households are acquiring income and maintaining their purchasing power through available unskilled labor opportunities, allowing them to meet their immediate food needs. Many households are also taking out food loans with their neighbors. The World Food Program (WFP) is starting to distribute food packages that are expected to reach 20,000 families in these departments. Food package distributions are also taking place in other zones reporting low food reserves. (July 2012)

The Ministry of Agriculture (SAG) has distributed agriculture input packages to subsistence farmers. So far the most vulnerable households in the Departments of Atlántida, Colon, Gracias a Dios, El Paraiso, Francisco Morazan, Choluteca, Valle, Comayagua, La Paz and Olancho have received packages. The distribution of input packages was late for the Primera planting of white maize, but on time for the Primera planting of beans. (July 2012)

White maize crops across the country are in the vegetative stage and currently forming tassels as they enter into their reproductive stage. According to preliminary reports of SAG, the total sowed area of white maize is approximately 98,000 Ha and 49,000 Ha of beans. According to the Soil Water index images from FEWS NET, the areas of stress due to low humidity have expanded to the north and central parts of the country. Less than one percent of maize and 3.6 percent of beans have been lost due to below normal rainfall in the areas surrounding the Departments of La Paz, Comayagua, Francisco Morazán, El Paraiso, Olancho and Choluteca. (July 2012)

According to the Honduras’s Meteorological Service, during June the rainfall was below normal in the central and eastern areas of the country and this decline will probably continue until late October. The climate forecast could affect the harvest of the Primera and the sowing for the Postrera season. (July 2012)

The white maize and bean retail and wholesale prices have been stable since May 2012. These prices have been maintained due to price regulation through the government distribution entity (BANASUPRO). The reserves of this entity include 35,000 quintals of beans and 40,000 quintals of white maize, which are programmed to be released slowly into markets in order to avoid high price increases in basic grains during the anticipated dry spell. (July 2012)

If the drought affects the Departments of Paraiso and Olancho this could affect national white maize production, while increasing the prices of basic grains. In addition to this, the drought that is affecting the United States could also impact prices of yellow maize in-country over the next few months because yellow maize is predominantly used for livestock feed and mostly imported from the United States. (July 2012)

According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), households in livelihoods zone 5 have depleted their food reserves and those in livelihoods zones 8 and 11 currently have low food reserves. Nevertheless, households in these zones are receiving food aid and or other assistance, and should soon be able to replenish their food reserves as they enter the end of the Primera season. (July 2012)