With the lean season underway, acute food insecurity will remain Minimal

• The lean season is underway and will continue through August. Poor households are meeting their needs and will continue to have food access from own production from the Primera season (through late August/September), therefore remaining in Minimal acute food insecurity (Phase 1, IPC 2.0) through the end of the projection period, September 2013.
• The Primera harvest yield is likely to be average as forecasts indicate normal rainfall through July. No major effects to crops are anticipated despite the upcoming canícula. The seasonal forecast indicates this period will be less dry than usual and unlikely to impact Primera production. Localized below-average rainfall may impact final production yields in the dry corridor. Close monitoring is needed.
• Coffee rust prevalence will reduce harvest and labor demand and wages by at least 30 percent in the next harvest (October 2013 – March 2014).

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Food insecurity likely Minimal in 2012/13

• Acute food insecurity is likely to remain Minimal (IPC Phase 1) through June 2013. Due to near average production in 2012, average income levels, and accessible consumer prices, households have been meeting their food and nonfood needs.
• Commercial producers have reduced red bean planting by up to 15 percent given the current surplus, which has resulted in low market prices (25-30 percent below average).
• Coffee rust prevalence is two to three times higher than usual. Labor demand will likely be reduced by more than 15 percent by the 2013/2014 harvest.

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Food insecurity likely Minimal in 2012/13

• Acute food insecurity is likely to be Minimal through the remainder of the post-harvest season even in dry corridor areas. Postrera harvests are likely to be near average due to above-average technical and input support (mitigating 2012 production losses due to below-average rainfall in the dry corridor) and anticipated average incomes. The lean season is expected to begin normally in April.
• Crop development in the western dry corridor is better than expected. As a result, harvest losses due to poor rainfall may be less significant than initially anticipated in that area.
• Coffee rust prevalence in the Western dry corridor (Madriz, Nueva Segovia and Estelí) is slightly above average. Projected 2012 coffee harvests are slightly below 2011 but near average. Harvest labor demand will be average and maintenance (treatment) labor demand will be above average between now and March/April.

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Losses to the Primera harvest due to an erratic start of season are concentrated in the North and in the dry corridor. However, government investment in agricultural inputs led to a large increase in area planted for the Primera harvest compared to last year; as such, even the largest Primera losses due to erratic rainfall (<20 percent of area planted) are not likely to significantly affect household food security. (September 2012)

According to the Meteorological Service (INETER), July rainfall was below the normal in the South, central and northeastern parts of the country. However, related crop losses are generally minimal, and since mid-August, rainfall has been within the normal range. In August, farmers are currently harvesting beans of the Primera season; white maize crops are in their fructification stage. (September 2012)

The prices of retail and wholesale beans and retail white maize remained stable in July; wholesale white maize prices increased seasonably (10-15 percent from June), However, price levels remain 40-50 percent below last years’ prices, since 2011 prices were affected by losses of the previous harvests. Currently basic grains are available in markets from good Postrera and Apante harvests. (September 2012)

Sowing for the Postrera harvest will begin in September/October. However, current forecasts suggest below-average rainfall in October for the western part of the country (10 percent of national Postrera production), mostly of beans. However for farmers in the area, the Postrera represents 60 percent of the expected bean harvest for the year. Vulnerable households in the area depend mostly on unskilled labor obtained from local agricultural activities, secondly on their own production. These forecasts suggest rainfall patterns similar to 2006 and 2009. (September 2012)

Even if the Postrera season is below average, acute food insecurity is unlikely before March/April 2013. The unskilled labor season will begin in October, giving households income to satisfy their food and nonfood needs through at least February/March. This is likely even if high prices for U.S. yellow maize causes a substitution effect on white maize with price increases above normal seasonal rates on regionally-produced white maize consumed by poor households. (September 2012)

The food security situation in Nicaragua is stable and most households in Nicaragua have food reserves from the previous Apante harvest that should last them the rest of the lean season. However, households affected by 12E and erratic rainfall earlier this year have smaller food reserves. (June 2012)

Through the Food Production Program the Nicaraguan Government has started to distribute agriculture inputs in the country. (June 2012)

According to the Ministry of Agriculture, farmers have planted 183,000 Ha of maize, beans and sorghum. These crops are currently sprouting and will start their vegetation stage sometime in June. (June 2012)

The rainy season has caused some infrastructure damage and blocked roads in Managua and areas in northern Nicaragua. SINAPRED has responded by making temporary shelters available for families whose homes have been damaged. (June 2012)

According to Meteorological Service of Nicaragua, the rainy season was established in late May and the beginning of June. Forecasts for this month expect rainfall to be below normal in parts of the Central and South Pacific and the northern region, while the Western Pacific area and the RAAN and RAAS Departments can expect normal levels of rainfall. In areas potentially facing rainfall deficits crop development could be adversely impacted. Additionally, the Meteorological Service stated that the la Niña dissipated during April, and transitioned to ENSO-neutral conditions during May and will continue during June. But, according to NOAA reports (June 7th) there is a 50 percent chance that El Niño conditions will develop during the second half of 2012. This could potentially affect crop production for the Primera harvest and planting for the Postrera, which could affect the food security situation of households. (June 2012)

Wholesale and retail prices for white maize remained stable this month but retail white maize is 15 percent below the five year average and wholesale white maize is 17 percent below the five year average. (June 2012)

In April 2012 bean wholesale prices increased 50 percent due to markets speculation of Apante crop losses, but during May prices were on the decline and fell 21 percent. Since April, bean retail prices have decreased by 15 percent. (June 2012)

Labor availability and demand for sugar cane, shrimp, and other seas products concluded in April. Labor opportunities for the period of May-October is expected to be significantly reduced and mainly casual activities related to grain production will be available. (May 2012)

According to WFP, FAO and ACH, vulnerable families affected by 12E and erratic rainfall in February have negligible food reserves for the rest of the lean period. The Departments that will be most vulnerable during the lean season include: Madriz, Nueva Segovia, Matagalpa, Chinandega, Estelí and Región Atlántico Norte. WFP has distributed 2,408 MT of food supplies for 218,745 persons. WFP has distributed maize, rice, beans, legumes, fortified oil, and micronutrient fortified cereal mixture through their school feeding/meals program, Food for Work, and to pregnant women and children under 3 through community and health centers. (June 2012)