Above average stocks and normal strategies suggest minimal food insecurity through June

• Average to above average household food stocks continue to allow good access to basic food needs. Poor households will continue to consume their own rice stocks until May and begin market purchases in June.
• Good harvests and normal income levels will result in Minimal food insecurity (IPC Phase 1) through at least June 2013.

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Minimal food insecurity through June

• Staple food prices, primarily rice, are at normal levels due to average supply in local and imported rice and good household stocks. Poor households will continue to access to basic food needs through own stocks and market purchase.
• A brief, country-wide gasoline shortage in early January has been corrected. Gas supply and demand has returned to normal levels and is not likely to impact food over the coming months.
• The cholera outbreak is under control due to diverse programs and initiatives, and given environmental conditions during the ongoing dry season. The cholera epidemic has not significantly impacted food security.
• Poor households will earn normal income from non-cropping activities (ex. petty trade, forestry product sales, casual labor) through June. Good harvests and normal income levels will result in Minimal food insecurity (IPC Phase 1) through at least May 2013.

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A good harvest, stable prices, and normal income levels lead to Minimal food insecurity

• Forecasted rice production for the 2012/13 cropping season is estimated to be 10 percent higher than last year, which was itself an above-average year. This increase is due to an annual increase in the amount of land cultivated, although the exact value of this increase is currently unknown due to the absence of an agricultural survey.
• This season's production levels for sweet potatoes, groundnuts, cassava, yams, and vegetables are also forecasted to be at levels higher than last year and the five-year average. These good harvests are improving poor households' access to food and are reducing the need for market purchases.
• The number of new cholera cases will continue to slow through November/December due to diverse assistance, a multi-sectoral approach adopted by the Government and its partners, and decreasing precipitation levels. At the moment, the cholera epidemic has not yet significantly impacted food security.
• Poor households will earn normal levels of income from non-cropping activities (ex. petty trade, forestry product sales, casual labor) during the upcoming months. Good harvest prospects and normal income levels will result in Minimal food insecurity (IPC Phase 1) through at least March 2013.

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The cholera epidemic in Sierra Leone is the worst in at least 15 years, affecting 10 of 15 districts. The current, late-August caseload of approximately 12,000 is likely to worsen through the end of September with the peak of seasonal rains. Western Area, Port Loko, and Kambia are worst affected. Urgent medical and behavior-change support is needed to save lives. However, though the issue will be monitored closely, FEWS NET’s research suggests that no significant impacts on food or labor supply or distribution have been observed or are expected. (August 2012)

The lean season is underway with less impact on household food consumption than usual due to favorable harvests in 2011/12. Household food security is expected to remain favorable at least through the next harvest starting in September given the good availability of basic food and favorable income-generating opportunities. (August 2012)

Planting is complete, and crops are performing well thanks to good rainfall since July. Major farm activities include weeding limited by regular intense rainfall since July, harvest of lowland cassava and sweet potato. Upland plantation of rice will start to be harvested in September, prior the main harvests. (August 2012)

The current, minor harvest of lowland cassava, fresh maize, millet and sorghum is improving access to household staples. Poor households still have access to less-preferred cassava, either from household stocks or on the market. Imported rice supplies are good, and prices are expected to be accessible now and beyond the August harvest. In August sweet potato will become available in many places. (July 2012)

Though household food stocks are at their seasonal lowest levels, they remain high for this time of year by wealthier groups due to good levels of staple food stocks. Poor households still earning normal incomes from petty-trade, selling farm products including current early harvested vegetables and cash crops, selling forest products, local labor, mining activities, and other income-earning activities. (August 2012)

Current medium-term forecasts suggest average rainfall totals through September/October favorable to average rice harvests between August and December/January. Household food security is expected to remain favorable until next harvest starting in September given the good availability of basic food and ongoing normal livelihoods. (August 2012)

The planting of upland rice that started on time in May is ongoing across the country. That of upland cassava started in the same month is almost completed in June. Other farm activities include weeding for early planted rice and for sweet potato in the south and east of the country, harvest of lowland cassava, maize, sorghum and millet. (June 2012)

The cumulative rainfall since April is near the five-year average in the south east and parts in the west, and moderately above average in most other parts of the country. The short term precipitation forecast through the first week of July suggests moderate to good rainfall across the country, meaning the good humidity conditions will remain favorable to extend upland rice planting. Current medium-term forecasts suggest average rainfall totals through September/October favorable to average rice harvests between August and December/January. (June 2012)

The current, minor harvest of lowland cassava, maize, millet and sorghum is improving access to household staples. Poor households still have access to less-preferred cassava, either from household stocks or on the market. Imported rice supplies are good, and prices are expected to be accessible now and beyond the August harvest. The lean season, which typically starts in June and lasts for three months, will probably be delayed until July with less impact on household food consumption than usual. In August sweet potato will become available in many places. (June 2012)

Though household food stocks are lower than in previous months, they remain high for this time of year due to good levels of staple food stocks and normal incomes derived from selling rice, palm oil, vegetables, groundnuts, tobacco, and cash crops. Market-dependent households have normal access to staple foods through the sale of forest products, local labor, mining activities, and other income-earning activities. (May 2012)

Household food security is expected to remain favorable until next harvest starting in August/September given the good availability of basic food and ongoing normal livelihoods. (June 2012)