Minimal food insecurity expected through September

• Average household stocks, normal livelihood strategies, and low prices for imported broken rice will help to maintain Minimal (IPC 2.0 Phase 1) food insecurity through September.

Good marketing season, minimal food insecurity throughout next June

• The 2012/13 good marketing season for groundnut and other leguminous crops will likely improve household incomes and enable access to basic food needs, primarily imported broken rice, through next June.
• Average to above-average household food stock levels, coupled with stable or slightly declining imported broken rice prices and normal income levels will result in Minimal (Phase 1) food insecurity through next June.

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Minimal food insecurity in 2012/13 due to above-average harvests and normal incomes

• The ongoing harvests of various crops, including millet, maize, rice, groundnuts, cowpeas, fonio, and horticulture crops, are likely to be average this season, improving poor household access to basic foods.
• Prices of imported broken rice, the most important staple food consumed by poor households in Senegal, have been relatively stable in September as compared to August. With a few exceptions, imported broken rice prices are lower than prices last year at this time (-3 to -8 percent). Local cereal prices are currently falling but remain 13-23 percent higher than last year. For poor households who sell a part of their cereal stock in order to generate cash to purchase imported broken rice, these high cereal prices are providing good incomes.
• Good household food stock levels, coupled with stable imported broken rice prices and normal income levels, will result in Minimal (Phase 1) food insecurity through at least March 2013.

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Low cereal production combined with high cereal prices early in the 2011/12 consumption year led to earlier-than usual reliance on markets for food and above-average household food expenditures, most particularly in the Southwest agricultural zones. Poor households sold more livestock than usual and received assistance to meet these livelihood protection gaps that are greatest during the June-August lean season. (August 2012)

Starting in mid-September, seasonal increases in labor demand; the availability of wild foods, green harvests, and milk; the stable or falling cereal prices with the harvest; and high demand for livestock for the Tabaski holidays in October will likely restore access to livelihood protection needs through at least March/April. (August 2012)

At the end of the second dekad of August the progress of the season is normal. Heavy rainfall in mid-August led to localized flooding, particularly in Dakar, though no significant food-security impacts are expected. The cumulative rainfall derived from satellites since the first dekad of April is generally average, except in the south of Kaolack, Kaffrine and west Tambacounda regions, where moderate deficits of 10-30 percent have been observed. These deficits are not likely to significantly affect crop development at this time of year. By early August, planting was complete across the country; the 1-2-dekad delays observed in parts of the south in July are not likely to have a significant impact on yields or harvests, which are expected to mature at the same time as usual (being mainly photoperiodic). Major cereal crops are elongating with early sowing in heading or flowering stage in the southern areas like Kolda, Sedhiou, Kedougou and Kaffrine. Late-planted cereals are in tillering stage. Groundnut has reached flowering stage in the main production area with some plants in ramification and grain formation stages. (August 2012)

The vast majority of households do not have stocks of local cereals due to early depletion starting in April/May, as a result of the below-average 2011/12 harvest. Most households have shifted their consumption to more imported broken rice which is available at stable, relatively average prices in the major markets. The supply of local cereals remains below normal with millet moderately available through traders’ stocks. (July 2012) On average prices for local cereals are 16-23 percent higher than last year and the five-year average. The increase of millet price between June and August is about 6 percent, confirming a seasonably low availability. (August 2012)

The majority of households in the country still have normal access to basic food, mainly imported rice thanks to well supplied markets and incomes gathered through typical livelihood activities, including petty trade, selling animals and forest products (charcoal, wood, wild fruits, etc.), transportation services, etc. (June 2012) Livestock prices were relatively stable in July-August, as were livestock-to-cereal terms of trade thanks to good availability of pasture and water, reducing livestock maintenance costs. WFP has been providing assistance to 900,000 poor individuals since May in the areas having faced major crop deficits in 2011/12 in the form of cash or food distribution, subsidized cereal sales, etc. (August 2012)

Food security conditions of poor households in the areas with below-average 2011/2012 harvests are stable since May and sufficient to meet household needs thanks to stable prices of imported rice, ongoing food assistance, and usual livelihood strategies. Stressed levels of food insecurity are likely among poor households through the end of August. Starting in mid-September, with the new 2012/13 consumption year and the restoration of labor demand, poor households will resume Minimum levels of acute food insecurity. (August 2012)

Poor households will likely meet minimum food needs with minor livelihood protection gaps until next harvest in September/October. (June 2012)

The start of the season is near average in most areas of the country. The cumulative rainfall derived from satellites since the first dekad of April is normal to 10-30 percent below normal in the southern departments. Though some localized areas in the north and west of Tambacounda estimate poorer rainfall totals, vegetation health derived from remote sensing product (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) also indicates near average conditions. (June 2012)

The current major field activity is land preparation which started in May in the south of the country. In some areas, planting has begun. Planting of groundnut and cereals started in early June in parts of the southern departments like Kedougou, Kolda and Tambacounda, and in late June in the southern parts of the center south departments like south Kaolack. Short term precipitation forecasts through the first of July suggest low to moderate rainfall in the south of the country, probably enough to maintain current planting and extend the area. Rainfall in the center and the north is not likely to be sufficient to allow planting, which is normal and doesn’t usually begin until July. Field reports suggest some difficulties accessing groundnut seeds in sufficient quantity and quality. (June 2012)

Household food stocks do not exist, mainly for the poor. The market remains the main source of food for the majority of households. In June, the supply of local cereals, particularly millet, remains below normal at this period and is entirely provided by traders. However, supply of millet is sufficient to demand, as shown by the relatively stable millet prices between April and May, without major increases. Millet prices remain high, generally 8 to 29 percent higher than last year at the same period, with the highest levels in Matam and Dakar. (June 2012)

However, most households including the poor are meeting food needs by substituting imported broken rice for local cereals. Markets across the country remain well supplied in imported broken rice; traders’ stocks are good enough to fill the gap in local cereal production. Between April and May, the prices of imported broken rice fell by 5 percent on average. In May prices of imported broken rice are similar to or below their levels in 2011 in the majority of markets, except in Tambacounda where they remain 12 percent higher. (June 2012)

The majority of households in the country still have normal access to basic food, mainly imported rice thanks to well supplied markets and incomes gathered through typical and intensified livelihood activities, including petty trade, selling animals and forest products (charcoal, wood, wild fruits, etc.), transportation services, etc. In June, livestock prices (small ruminants) are reported to be at least 25 percent lower than normal prices due to more market supply. The unusual supply provides income with which to meet farming needs and some basic food needs. This important supply may also be explained by the presence of more animals from Mauritania than usual. (June 2012)

The seasonal precipitation forecast for July-August-September issued in late May by ACMAD suggests a high likelihood for average to below-average rainfall in northern Senegal. More recent medium-term forecasts indicate average rainfall for all of Senegal. However, even if the less favorable ACMAD forecast is realized a normal temporal distribution of rainfall will lead to a near-average harvest, regardless of seeds issues. (June 2012)

Food security conditions of poor households in the areas with below-average 2011/2012 harvests are not optimum but remain stable between May and June despite minor livelihood-protection gaps thanks to stable prices of imported rice, ongoing food assistance and usual livelihood strategies. Stressed levels of food insecurity are possible among the poor households until August. Beginning in September, seasonal increases in labor demand; the availability of wild foods, green harvests, and milk; stable or falling cereal prices with the harvest; and high demand for livestock for Tabaski holidays in October will likely be sufficient to meet minimum household food and livelihood protection needs through at least December. (June 2012)