Minimal acute food insecurity through September, even with the lean season underway

• The lean season is currently underway and will continue through August. Poor households are meeting their needs with less difficulty than last year. This Minimal (Phase 1, IPC 2.0) acute food insecurity outcome is due to good 2012 production, average incomes, and low and accessible consumer food prices.
• The Primera season begins in April/May and the harvest is expected in August/September. The yield is likely to be near last year’s above-average production as rainfall is expected to be normal through July. Localized rainfall deficits and a moderate to severe canícula (dry period in July/August) may impact production at the local level.
• Coffee rust prevalence is three to four times higher than usual, reducing the 2013/2014 harvest, labor demand and wages by at least 30 to 40 percent.

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• Good Postrera harvests in 2012, accompanied by average levels of income and low and affordable food prices, are likely to maintain Minimal acute food insecurity (Phase 1, IPC 2.0) throughout the remainder of the consumption year. These favorable conditions are likely to sustain poor households, even with the onset of the lean season expected in May.
• The coffee rust prevalence is three to four times higher than normal, affecting between 40 to 50 percent of coffee plants. As a result, the 2013/2014 harvest and labor demand are likely to be significantly reduced. The situation will require close monitoring in the months ahead to determine the impact on food security.

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Minimal food insecurity in 2012/13

• Average to above-average Postrera harvests are anticipated in November/December. No negative shocks are expected to affect labor demand or staple food prices. As a result, acute food insecurity is likely to remain Minimal (IPC 2.0 Phase 1) through the end of the projection period (March 2013). The lean season will begin normally in May.
• The prevalence of coffee rust is two to three times higher than average. This is unlikely to significantly affect the current harvest, but treatment is needed to protect future harvests. Coffee prices are estimated to be high enough to cover this additional production cost, which will favor above-average labor demand between now and March/April.

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National Primera production was 10-20 percent above average this year, and prices for white maize and red beans are below average. Despite the forecasts for below-average Postrera rains, above-average input support from government is likely to result in near-average harvests. Food security in El Salvador is expected to be generally Minimal (IPC 2.0 Phase 1) for the remainder of the 2012/13 consumption year. (September 2012)

Close attention should be paid to the East, however, where Primera production was poor and where Postrera rains are also likely to be below average. Again, low cereal prices, average to good demand for labor, and above-average input support from the government are likely to mitigate any production shocks on poor households in the East, resulting in minimal food insecurity through the peak of the 2012/13 lean season. (September 2012)

Below-average rainfall in July and August in the eastern part of the country led to local Primera harvests only 70 percent of average. However, surplus-production areas in the remainder of the country had a good Primera harvest. As a result, national Primera production is 15 percent above the five year average for white maize, the main Primera crop, and 18 percent above for red beans. This level of production is 18 percent above last year’s Primera for white maize and similar to last year’s for red beans. The increments are a result of the government agricultural input support provided over the past three years, as well as high prices, which provide an incentive to increase area planted. (September 2012)

Casual, unskilled labor is the most important source of income for poor households nationwide. Agriculture, particularly the sugarcane harvest, is the main source of demand for casual, unskilled labor, and this demand peaks from October until March. There have been no major shocks to sugarcane or other cash crops, and labor demand is expected to be normal. (September 2012)

Postrera crops are normally sown in September and harvested in December. Farmers have already sown for the Postrera, and crops are in their vegetative stage. Current medium-term forecasts suggest below-average rainfall with irregular distribution and early end in October, particularly in the East. This is similar to forecasts in 2006 and 2009, when harvests were 10-25 percent below the five-year average (2007 – 2011). As such, the Postrera harvest is unlikely to fullfil its potential yield. However, the government distributed in September/October 33,000 Postrera input packages to farmers in the East who faced Primera losses (50 percent of poor farmers). This distribution is above and beyond typical input support. As such, even if the Postrera also faces yield losses, the poor are likely to be less affected than usual by such a shock, and the total Postrera harvest may still be near average since surplus production areas expected rainfall within the normal range. (September 2012)

In general, August prices of red beans and white maize were 40-50 percent below last year and 10-20 percent below the five year average due to an excellent 2011 Postrera harvest in the region and strong flows from Nicaragua and Honduras. Prices on most markets remained seasonally stable between July and August, except in eastern markets for wholesale white maize, where prices increased up to 10 percent. However, early reports in September indicate that white maize prices are starting to decrease seasonally due to the Primera harvest in these markets. (September 2012)

El Salvador’s imports over 16,000 MT of yellow maize per year, almost entirely for agro-industry, and almost entirely from the US. For the moment, FEWS NET is not anticipating a significant shift in demand to white maize in El Salvador during the 2012/13 consumption year as imports from Argentina and Brazil remain a viable substitute for U.S. yellow maize. (September 2012)

Poor households in the east represent 85 percent of the total households in the area; 25 percent of the households consumption comes from their own agricultural production. They rely mainly in the primera harvest from August to October, shifting to a combination of purchases and agriculture production from November until April, depending only of purchases from May to August; this year, below average primera production, low prices for white maize and beans even though the slightly larger than usual increase in cereals early in 2013, will likely result in above average food expenditures. Households will likely be able to meet their food and non-food needs with the reduce harvest of primera and likely of postrera, the government support through agricultural inputs and income of sugarcane harvest and agricultural activities through the end of the consumption year July/August 2013, maintaining the poor households food security levels in phase 1 of the IPC 2.0 scale. (September 2012)

Food security is generally stable across the country. Crops in the western, eastern, and central regions of the country have completed their vegetative stage and are currently forming tassels as they enter their reproductive stage. (July 2012)

The Ministry of Agriculture (MAG) has reached 315,000 households through the distribution of agriculture input packages to subsistence farmers across the country. Distribution of these packages, which included white maize seeds and fertilizer, reached farmers on time and was completed during the first week of June. According to MAG, the overall area sowed in the country has increased when compared to the area sowed last year. For the Primera cycle, MAG authorities are estimating a national harvest of 22 million quintals of white maize and 2 million quintals of beans if crops are not affected by reduced rainfall levels. (July 2012)

According to the Meteorological Service of El Salvador, during the month of June rainfall levels were below normal. The rainfall forecast for the next three months is expected to be below normal for most of the country. Areas in the east are also expected to have below normal rainfall. The dry period (canicula) of 0 to 15 days is expected to take place in of August. According to the soil water index model used by FEWS NET, the departments of La Union, San Miguel Usulután and San Vicente show a reduction in the necessary levels of soil humidity needed for the crops to develop appropriately. At the moment there have not been any losses or damages reported, however if below average rainfall continues, then the Primera harvest could be adversely affected and these conditions could also impact sowing for the Postrera season. (July 2012)

White maize and beans retail prices have decreased by 4 and 6 percent, respectively, since May. Wholesale maize and bean prices have decreased by almost 13 percent, which is unusual for this time of the year since in previous years prices have started to increase in June. Prices for white maize and seda beans are almost 50 percent below the listed prices in June of 2011 and 22 percent below the five year average. Tinto bean prices are almost 20 percent above last year’s average and 18 percent above over the five year average. Current prices are making food supplies accessible to most households in El Salvador since most of them depend on local markets for buying their supplies in June. However, if these prices continue to decrease, this could affect the incomes of farmers and households that sell part of their Primera harvests. According to MAG, the supply and demand for white maize and beans has remained stable and there is even a grain surplus in the markets that are supplied by Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua. This surplus has prevented the typical price increases that occur during this time of year. (July 2012)

Both diesel and gasoline are preferred fuels, but diesel is most widely used by wholesale transporters. Diesel prices continued to fall slightly during June when compared to May prices. At the same time, fertilizer prices have been relatively stable with minor changes from month to month this year. In general, price projections for staple commodities over the next month do not include significant price shifts. (June 2012)

Households in El Salvador have acquired income and purchasing power from available unskilled labor opportunities from agro- industrial and casual activities, allowing them to meet their immediate food needs. However, households affected by tropical depression 12E are experiencing an earlier than usual lean season. Families affected by 12E are being supported by Government programs including the agriculture input packages distributed by MAG and organizations such as Plan International, FAO/PESA/Dry Corridor Project, and Caritas. (June 2012)

The food security situation in El Salvador is currently stable. However, farmers in the east have reported a reduction in the rainfall from 3 to 8 days. At the moment there has been no crop damage or losses reported, however if further reductions in the rainfall are experienced and the canicula begins, crops will likely be affected and a reduction in yield could be experience by farmers, impacting household food security. (July 2012)