Most rural households across the region will maintain Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity outcomes between October 2014 and March 2015. However in localized parts of Angola, Lesotho, Malawi, Madagascar, and Tanzania, poor households are projected to face mainly Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and some Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes during this period due to high food prices, along with reduced incomes from labor and crop sales following the 2013/14 seasonal harvest.
Across the region, food prices are expected to be stable and to follow seasonal trends due to increased market supply and reduced demand. Due to above average harvests, households will start depending on the markets a little later than usual. Prices are expected to be lower or similar to their respective five-year averages but will generally be lower than 2013 prices because of above-average production during the 2013/14 agricultural year.
Intraregional formal and informal trade is stabilizing staple grain supplies. Regional markets are functioning and trade flows remain normal. Exports from surplus producing areas are expected to continue to play a key role in supplying deficit area markets across the region.
The SARCOF 2014/15 rainfall forecast was issued by the SADC Climate Services Center in August. The forecast suggests an enhanced probability of average to above-average rainfall in the majority of the region throughout the season. This generally positive forecast suggests good prospects for agriculture. The exception is in northern DRC and northern Madagascar during the October to December period, DRC and northern Angola during the November to January period, and most of DRC and northern Angola during the January to March period. These areas are likely to receive average to below-average rainfall.