Remotely Monitored Country
Remote Monitoring Report

Extreme dryness and Foot-and-mouth disease limits pastoral movements in the south

June 2015
2015-Q2-2-2-AO-en

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Final estimates for high producing areas are beginning to reflect an average season for most of the country. However, production in Cunene Province is now expected to be worse than the drought-affected 2011-2012 season, and production in Huila Province is expected to be below average. In parts of Cunene, basic staple food supplies are scarce and poor households find it difficult to access these supplies in markets. 

  • A combination of extreme dryness and Foot-and-mouth disease has already caused a high number of cattle deaths in the southern region. In Cunene an estimated 1,000 cattle died, and Cuando Cubango experienced 1,500 deaths. This situation is further hindering pastoralist coping strategies within the southern region. Households face difficulty generating income needed to acquire food in the market. Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected to continue through September. 

  • Since Huila typically supplies food deficit areas in Namibe and Cunene, below-average crop prospects are expected to have a negative impact on the volume of staple food supplies that flow to Namibe and Cunene this year. As of late May, maize prices have increased by 15 percent in Namibe and 21 percent in Ondjiva, Cunene, since the previous month. 

Zone Current Anomalies Projected Anomalies
Southern Livestock, Millet, Sorghum Livelihood zone There is an outbreak of Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in the municipality of Menongue and Cuangar in Cuando Cubango, and in Cuvelai, Namacunde, and Cuanhama municipalities in Cunene. As a result, a ban on livestock movement is being implemented, which might impact the survival of the animals in these areas.  Since FMD is a highly contagious disease for cloven-hoofed animals and space is limited for the animals, efforts to quarantine the infected are not expected to effectively control the disease. Increased infections across herds is expected in this area, and likely to result in more livestock deaths for pastoralists. 

 

PROJECTED OUTLOOK THROUGH SEPTEMBER 2015

National

Midway through the harvest period, most high producing regions of the country are reporting good cereal, beans, and horticultural production levels. However, it has been observed that there is a marked increase in basic staple food supplies in markets around the country. As a result, cereal prices in most major market centers are declining. Average maize prices in Huambo have decreased by 15 percent since the previous month, and in Bie and Malanje, maize prices have declined by 20 and 10 percent within the last month, respectively. The exception to this downward trend are in Lubango in Huila Province, a major supplier of food crops to Namibe and Cunene Provinces, where average maize prices increased by 13 percent since the previous month. 

Areas of Concern: Southern Livestock, Millet, Sorghum Livelihood zone and Sub humid livestock and maize zone
  • Menongue and Cuangar municipalities in the Province of Cuando Cubango have reported an outbreak of Foot-and-mouth disease, which has already caused around 1,500 cattle deaths. Given that there are large portions of the province that are yet to be inspected, and there is high degree of movement of cattle between provincial borders (especially between Cuangar and Okalupalelona in Namibia), more infections are expected.
  • In Namibe Province, the maize harvest period is almost over and local MINAGRI officers estimate that production in the province is 10 percent higher than then production during the previous agricultural season. Harvests of sorghum and millet are expected to be even better than maize production, given that these crops are hardier than maize and more drought resistant. It is also expected that that horticultural production, especially tomato production, will be an improvement from the previous season because of the recent installation of boreholes that are used for irrigation. Current maize prices are still the same compared to last month. Pasture conditions in the Bibala and Camucuio areas are deteriorating, however livestock is still in good shape, and prices per animal are on average AKZ 115,000.
  • In Cunene Province, the harvest period is at a midway point and local MINAGRI officers are estimating that cereal production will now be even lower than the 2012-2013 season, which was when the region was affected by a severe drought. Maize prices in the area are 10 percent higher than last month and prices for beans are 20 percent higher than the previous month. The detection of   FMD in the transhumant areas of Cubango, has forced the government to issue a ban on the movement of all animals (in and out) in Cuanhama, Namacunde, and Cuvelai. This ban is also extended to animals coming to or from Namibia. The FMD outbreak comes after a  dermafilose  outbreak last month. It is reported that the FMD has already caused around 1,000 cattle deaths, and more are expected to die because the virus is highly infectious and animal conditions are poor. It should be noted that the municipality of Cuvelai is the last remaining area with relatively good pasture and some quantities of drinking water still available. So, this ban on the movement of livestock will further hamper pastoralist coping strategies this consumption year. 
 
ABOUT REMOTE MONITORING
 
In remote monitoring, a coordinator typically works from a nearby regional office. Relying on partners for data, the coordinator uses scenario development to conduct analysis and produce monthly reports. As less data may be available, remote monitoring reports may have less detail than those from countries with FEWS NET offices. For more information click here.

About Remote Monitoring

In remote monitoring, a coordinator typically works from a nearby regional office. Relying on partners for data, the coordinator uses scenario development to conduct analysis and produce monthly reports. As less data may be available, remote monitoring reports may have less detail than those from countries with FEWS NET offices. Learn more about our work here.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 34 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.