Madagascar

• Between October 2024 and January 2025, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes are likely in most of the Grand South and Grand Southeast, with worse outcomes mitigated by planned humanitarian assistance. In areas with lower levels of humanitarian assistance – including Bekily, Beloha, and Tsihombe – Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to emerge by November 2024. 
• Weather shocks including erratic rainfall and pest infestations resulted in localized reduced yields in the 2024 maize, root, and tuber harvests and an atypically early depletion of food stocks for affected households. Weather-related damage and years of prior shocks have impacted better-off households that typically hire labor, reducing hiring and driving below-average income-earning opportunities and wage rates. Amid above-average prices, market-dependent poorer households have limited purchasing capacity to meet their food needs. An estimated 1.0 to 1.49 million people will need humanitarian food assistance throughout the outlook period.  
• From February to May 2025, mainly Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist through the peak of the lean season. However, food security outcomes are expected to improve to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) across the Grand South and Grand Southeast between April and May following the green and main maize harvests and the main rice harvest. In areas worst affected by previous weather shocks, cropped area and harvests are expected to be below normal for some very poor households, constrained by limited access to seeds and other agricultural inputs without negatively impacting near-average harvest expectations for most regions.
• Areas of highest concern are Bekily, Beloha, and Tsihombe in the Grand South, where relatively lower levels of humanitarian food assistance will be unlikely to mitigate worse outcomes during the lean season. 

The analysis in this report is based on information available as of October 15, 2024.