Area-level Crisis outcomes to emerge after nearly a decade of poor rainfall in the south

• Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected across much of the Grand South and remote areas of the Grand Southeast from November to March 2026, driven by past weather shock impacts on crop production. Poor households are expected to struggle to mitigate their food consumption gaps after depleting their food stocks atypically early. Many households are expected to resort to coping strategies – including consuming atypically high amounts of wild foods, selling productive assets, or skipping meals – amid a context of rapidly increasing food prices and below-average income from agricultural labor and self-employment.
• Between April and May, the arrival of the green and main harvests is anticipated to facilitate improvement in food security to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes. Poor households most impacted by past weather shocks are likely to struggle to meet their essential non-food needs as they pay past debts.
• Political uncertainty is expected to exacerbate existing macroeconomic challenges, which will likely lead to price increases for essential food and non-food items (particularly imports) and weaken household purchasing power. However, impacts are likely to be limited in southern Madagascar, given its lower dependence on imported commodities and limited economic integration with the rest of the country. Weather shocks remain the main driver of acute food insecurity.
• The areas of highest concern include Ambovombe, Amboasary, Tsihombe, and Ampanihy-Ouest districts in the Grand South and Ikongo and Nosy Varika districts in the Grand Southeast.
• FEWS NET estimates that 1.5-1.99 million people will be in need of humanitarian food assistance during the peak of the lean season from January to March 2026, similar to recent years. Needs are expected to decline between April and May with the arrival of the main harvest; however, needs will remain elevated due to the lingering impacts of drought and cyclone-related crop losses
• FEWS NET did not have access to food assistance distribution plans at the time of reporting; however, global humanitarian funding challenges are anticipated to limit the scale and impact of future distributions in southern Madagascar. 

The analysis in this report is based on information available as of October 17, 2025

Madagascar boasts significant biodiversity and a multitude of microclimates, offering varied livelihood options for households in most parts of the country. However, the island is very vulnerable to weather shocks, with recurrent droughts and multiple cyclone strikes negatively impacting the island in recent years. The Grand South, particularly southwestern Madagascar, has suffered poor rainfall nearly every year in the last decade. During the 2024/25 agricultural season, rainfall was generally sufficient, supporting farming activities. However, a delayed arrival of rains was observed between December and January; a period also marked by rising temperatures. This disruption, alongside episodes of excessive rainfall during the passages of two tropical cyclones and another major tropical storm, negatively affected late-sown crops, particularly maize and beans. In the southeastern region, flooding damaged staple food crops such as cassava and sweet potatoes. Moreover, deteriorating infrastructure contributed to prolonged flooding in rice fields, disrupting the cultivation of main season rice. At the national level, the worsening condition of road networks significantly hinders trade flows and market supply. This has led to a sharp increase in the prices of both food and essential non-food items, particularly in remote areas.

Rice is the most important staple food across much of the country; however, cassava is the preferred staple in the more arid Grand South and a key source of nutrients for households throughout the year. Sweet potato, maize, and legumes are also integral to diets in the Grand South, while breadfruit and plantains play a larger role in the Grand Southeast. The annual lean season typically lasts from December to March but varies somewhat by region, depending on the preferred staple food. 

Agriculture encompasses most livelihood options for poor and very poor households across the country. Cash crop production drives labor demand across the northern and central districts, as well as in limited districts of the Grand Southeast. Typically, labor demand for cash crops lasts from July through March, with the most relevant crops being vanilla, pepper, cloves, coffee, lychee, cocoa, groundnuts, sugarcane, and onions. Although seasonal migration is an important source of income, poor road conditions and the high cost of transportation around the island constrain most poor and very poor households to migrate within their own region only, largely preventing southern households from earning relatively higher wages in the north and central parts of the country. In the Grand South and Grand Southeast, local livelihood options include land preparation and harvest for staple crops; crop sales; firewood and charcoal sales; fetching and selling water; making and selling rope and other products from the sisal plant; informal mining; and – in localized areas – the gathering and selling of wild foods. Agricultural land preparation and maintenance continue throughout the year at low levels, and the staple harvests include main season rice in May and June; root and tuber crops between July and September; secondary rice in December; and cereals and legumes in March and April. Markets are typically well integrated within the same region and less so at the country level, but most regions are intermittently inaccessible during the rainy season. Local livestock supplies are negatively affected by cattle rustling (dahalo banditry). Cattle are typically owned by better-off households, while poor households tend to own poultry, goats, and other small ruminants.

Historical trends show that acute malnutrition tends to improve between April and September (with the arrival of the cereal, legume, rice, and root and tuber harvests), then worsens starting in October, coinciding with the annual lean season when household food stock levels are at their lowest and staple food prices seasonally increase. 

Learn more

Follow these links for additional information: 

• Latest Madagascar Food Security Outlook Update: August 2025 to January 2026
• Latest Madagascar Key Message Update: September 2025
• Overview of FEWS NET’s scenario development methodology
• FEWS NET’s approach to estimating the population in need  
• Overview of the IPC and IPC-compatible analysis
• FEWS NET’s approach to humanitarian food assistance analysis 

• The 2025 staple crop harvests yields (maize, beans, roots, and tubers) were mixed (see the August 2025 Food Security Outlook Update), contributing to overall below-average food stocks, particularly for some poor households. Constrained access to key agricultural inputs and the need to sell a large portion of harvests to service debts limited the replenishment of food stocks after the harvest. Poor households, especially those who experienced several consecutive seasons of below-average harvests in recent years, are beginning to exhaust their food stocks atypically early (by one to two months). Households are beginning to heavily rely on staple food purchases at local markets amid high and seasonally rising prices.
• Persistently poor macroeconomic conditions continue to undermine household purchasing power. As of June 2025, annual inflation was estimated at 8.2 percent and food inflation was even higher at an estimated at 9.18 percent. This marks a slight increase compared to inflation levels observed at the same time last year, when annual inflation and food inflation were 7.2 and 6.1 percent, respectively. High inflation remains a chronic issue in the country, in large part due to Madagascar’s structural dependence on imported products.
• Agricultural labor income remains below average. Currently, households are gradually preparing for cassava, maize, and bean cultivation by purchasing inputs and preparing land. However, many poor households are still struggling to obtain enough planting materials, including seeds and cassava stalks. This is due to limited carry-over stocks and financial resources amid their ongoing economic recoveries. Some households are earning additional income through land preparation and sowing activities, which helps them to purchase food. However, below-average hiring capacity of better-off households and the high local labor supply are suppressing wages.
• Cash crop production in eastern Madagascar and the Grand Southeast is contributing to seasonally high labor demand. However, international price volatility and a reduced number of trading partners are placing downward pressure on farmgate prices. This decline in terms of trade is reducing profitability, limiting producers’ ability to hire labor, and suppressing wages, resulting in decreased agricultural labor incomes. Although cash crops have largely recovered from cyclone-related damage, the lingering effects of multiple seasons of poor production continue to limit hiring capacity and wage levels. Off-season rice cultivation is also contributing to seasonally high labor demand, though hiring capacity and wages remain below average due to the lingering impacts of past weather shocks and high labor supply.
• Sporadic and localized rainfall in October marked the beginning of the rainy season in northern, central, and eastern areas. Rainfall has been generally below-average (Figure 1). However, it should be noted that deficits are relatively small in magnitude, the rainy season in most of the country is long, and seasonal forecasts are favorable.
• Livestock herd sizes in the Grand South remain below average due to the impacts of past droughts and banditry, although conditions are largely good to fair, as is typical for the time of year. As of October, cattle were selling for an average of 1,800,000 MGA per head, or approximately 410 USD, representing a 15 percent increase compared to both last year and the five-year average. Prices for small ruminants, which are often the first assets sold by poor and middle-income households once food stocks are depleted, have also improved. Goats and sheep are selling for 150,000 MGA (about 35 USD) and 110,000 MGA (about 25 USD), respectively, higher than the past four years.
• The suspension of Madagascar’s membership in regional blocs following political unrest in September and October poses a new threat to the country’s already fragile economy and food security landscape. The recent lifting of curfews and movement restrictions has generally allowed urban populations to return to their typical livelihood activities. The incomes of households whose livelihoods depend on tourism likely remain negatively impacted due to the imposition of elevated travel warnings by other countries in response to the situation, despite the resumption of international airlines’ operations.

Humanitarian food assistance

• Typically, distributions of humanitarian food assistance are seasonally low in October and limited in both scale and impact. FEWS NET is aware that humanitarian food assistance distributions are likely ongoing in localized areas of Ambovombe district. However, FEWS NET was unable to obtain access to distribution plans (number of beneficiaries and ration sizes), limiting its capacity to assess any potential impacts on current area-level acute food insecurity outcomes.

The Grand South:

Widespread area-level Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are likely ongoing across the Grand South. October marks a critical transition between the end of the root and tuber harvest and the start of the lean season. Households are gradually becoming more market dependent to meet their food needs, but most have not yet completely exhausted their food stocks. Markets are still supplied with good quality local cassava and sweet potatoes. While prices have increased since the end of the harvest, prices remain below seasonal peaks. However, below-average agricultural incomes combined with the increased prices are constraining poor households’ purchasing power, and many poor households are likely struggling to meet their essential non-food needs. 

However, a proportion of very poor households whose harvests were most constrained by inadequate access to planting material, cyclone-related crop damage (largely confined to coastal areas of Ampanihy and Beloha districts), or the need to service debts are likely facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes. Many of these households are starting to employ coping strategies such as reducing meal portions and frequency, selling atypically high amounts of poultry and other livestock to afford food purchases, increasing their reliance on wild foods (which are not yet in full season), and reducing essential expenditures on health and education. Deteriorating food consumption is likely contributing to rising acute malnutrition levels. Malnutrition prevalence is likely highest in remote areas of the Grand South whose harvests were most impacted by past weather shocks (notably Amboasary and Ambovombe).

The Grand Southeast:

Area-level Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are likely ongoing across most of the Grand Southeast. Most poor households are meeting their food needs through own-produced stocks, seasonal agricultural labor, and other self-employment activities; however, persistent inflation, low cash crop prices, below-average wages, and the cumulative impacts of past weather shocks will limit their ability to meet their essential non-food needs. 

Area-level Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are likely ongoing in the most remote areas (Ikongo district and parts of Nosy Varika and Befotaka). While food is available in markets, access is constrained by rising prices and atypically low household purchasing power. A proportion of poor households are likely resorting to similar coping strategies as in the Grand South. Acute malnutrition is likely rising, but in the Grand Southeast this is attributable to factors unrelated to food consumption, including: deteriorating access conditions during the rainy season reducing households’ access to essential services; a seasonal increase in waterborne and vector-borne diseases such as diarrhea and malaria; inadequate feeding practices; and a weak health system (for more information see FEWS NET’s October 2024 Food Security Outlook). Global acute malnutrition (GAM) rates are likely highest in Ikongo, a very remote district of the Grand Southeast where a major malaria outbreak is compounding an already precarious nutritional situation. The most recent May 2025 IPC Acute Malnutrition Analysis projected Serious (GAM 10-14.9 percent) levels in Ikongo, even during the harvest period (May-September 2025).

• According to international forecasts, a timely start to the rainy season is expected between October and December 2025. Above-average rainfall is forecast in southern and central Madagascar, with average rainfall elsewhere.
• From January to March 2026, rainfall is expected to be average across most of Madagascar, with above-average precipitation in the south, improving pasture conditions, water point availability, livestock body conditions, and livestock prices.  
• Slightly above-average numbers of cyclones are anticipated during the 2025/26 tropical cyclone season (November-April 2026), given forecasted weak La Niña conditions and weakly positive Subtropical Indian Ocean Dipole (SIOD) conditions. A heightened risk of excessive rainfall events is anticipated through April 2026.  
• Anticipated favorable agroclimatic conditions during off-season rice cultivation are expected to boost local rice production. Rice import requirements are expected to be below average between October 2025 and May 2026 due to favorable 2025 main and off-season harvests, though imports will still be required to meet demand.
• Agricultural labor incomes are expected to rise seasonally from November through April due to increased demand during the cultivation of off-season rice and main season staple crops, though wage levels will vary by region. Clove, pepper, and lychee production in the east and southeast will likely be average, supported by expected typical rainfall, providing additional labor opportunities through December. However, further declines in vanilla prices due to weakening international demand are anticipated, which will negatively impact labor demand and wages.  
• Low food stocks following below-average 2024/25 harvests will likely drive poor households in the Grand South to sell atypically high numbers of poultry and other small ruminants, exerting downward pressure on livestock prices and limiting associated revenues.  
• Despite improved conditions, herd sizes are expected to remain below-average in the Grand South amid continued dahalo banditry that disincentivizes households from growing their herds. Cattle prices are expected to remain relatively stable, though minor declines are likely during the lean season as households sell animals to purchase food, increasing market supply.
• From October to April, staple food prices are expected to rise and remain above-average given seasonal trends and supply constraints. New harvests in April-May are expected to stabilize or reduce prices, though they will remain above the five-year average.  
• Inflation will remain high, driven by food prices and global commodity price volatility, despite some relief from monetary tightening and falling imported rice prices. Economic performance will likely be negatively impacted by political uncertainty.  
• Continued depreciation of the local currency will increase import costs, raise prices for consumer goods, and weaken household purchasing power. Depreciation is likely to surpass recent levels in response to political uncertainty and create additional inflationary pressure.  
• The Grand South is expected to be less impacted by economic disruptions related to political uncertainty, most notably in the form of relatively lower inflation. This region is less economically integrated with the rest of the country and is expected to remain highly dependent on locally produced food items and minimally dependent on imported products, most of which will arrive through regional ports (Toliara and Taolagnaro [Fort Dauphin]).
• Fuel prices are adjusted monthly under the automatic mechanism introduced in January 2025, which aligns local prices with global oil trends and exchange rate movements while capping changes at 200 MGA/liter. In September, gasoline and diesel prices declined, offering relief to transporters. However, above-average and rising kerosene prices are expected to disproportionately impact poor households who rely on kerosene for lighting and cooking.

Humanitarian food assistance

• Detailed information on planned and likely humanitarian food assistance distributions was not available at the time of this analysis. Therefore, this analysis does not factor in any potential impacts of humanitarian food assistance. Global reductions in financing for humanitarian assistance will likely limit the scale and impact of food assistance in southern Madagascar in 2025/26. 

The Grand South

Area-level Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected from November 2025 through the main harvest in March 2026 across most of the region. Poor households whose harvests and food stocks were most impacted by past weather shocks will have exhausted their limited, own-produced food stocks atypically early (well before the peak of the lean season), and will have to rely on increasingly expensive food purchases from local markets. While agricultural labor opportunities will seasonally increase during cassava, cereal, and legume planting activities, related incomes will remain below-average due to the reduced hiring capacity of better-off households and above-average local labor supply. Households may sell more poultry than is typical to generate enough income to meet their food needs or increase their engagement in gathering and selling wild fruits, petty trade, and charcoal sales; however, increased competition will limit income from these sources. Increasing proportions of the population will likely face food consumption gaps as the peak of the lean season arrives and will likely resort to negative coping strategies such as selling remaining productive assets, skipping meals, or harvesting green harvests atypically early. Acute malnutrition levels are projected to worsen to Serious (GAM 10-14.9 percent) during the peak of the lean season as food stocks deplete, access conditions deteriorate during the rainy season, and as water and vector-borne diseases (diarrhea and malaria) seasonally increase. Critical (GAM 15-29.9 percent) malnutrition outcomes are expected in Amboasary between February and April 2026, marking a deterioration from the Serious levels projected in recent years. 

Household food consumption is expected to improve with the arrival of the main harvest in April, facilitating improvements to area-level Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes through May 2026. Some poor households are still expected to sell a large portion of their upcoming harvests to service past debts and are likely to struggle to meet their essential non-food needs as they continue their economic recovery. Acute malnutrition levels are also expected to decrease shortly after the harvests. In areas of the Grand South that have access to fishing resources, are more productive, or better-connected to major regional markets (Toliara and Taolagnaro, notably), Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected from October through May 2026. Most households will be able to meet their minimum food needs, facing relatively lower food prices and more lucrative and diversified income-earning opportunities. 

The Grand Southeast

Area-level outcomes in the remote districts of Ikongo, Nosy Varika, and Befotaka (MG18 and MG22 portions) are expected to deteriorate to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) between October and January 2026, coinciding with the arrival of the rains and lean season. Poor households are expected to deplete their limited food stocks atypically early as food prices rapidly rise (exacerbated by extremely poor access conditions driving increased transportation costs), and will struggle to purchase enough food to meet their minimum kilocalorie needs. The off-season rice harvest in December will briefly replenish household food stocks, but only for about a month for poor households and two months for better-off households. Agricultural labor opportunities will seasonally increase during the rice harvest but remain very limited in these areas due to accessibility challenges and limited hiring capacity. Given high transportation costs, most households will be unable to earn additional income by providing labor for cash crop harvesting in neighboring zones. With limited income-earning opportunities, many households are likely to resort to negative coping strategies such as purchasing food on credit, reducing essential expenditures on health and education, or reducing meal portions and frequency. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist in remote areas until the main harvest begins between March and April. Acute malnutrition levels are projected to worsen to Serious (GAM 10-14.9 percent) in most areas during the peak of the lean season. Ikongo is expected to deteriorate into Critical levels (GAM 15-29.9 percent) as the lean season progresses, with inflated staple food prices due to seasonal deteriorations in road conditions and high transport costs that impact flows of essential food and medical supplies. Heightened malaria caseloads and extremely poor access to health services will exacerbate the situation.

Starting in May 2026, the arrival of the main rice harvest is expected to facilitate area-level improvements to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are anticipated. Most households will be able to meet their minimum food needs with own-produced crops, in-kind wages from harvesting activities, and incomes from limited self-employment activities (notably petty trade and informal mining). Persistently high prices and the need to service past debts will still prevent some poor households from meeting their non-food needs. In less-remote areas of the Grand Southeast, where food prices will remain relatively low and there is greater availability of agricultural labor opportunities, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected through May 2026. Though conditions during the upcoming off-season rice harvest and the main maize and bean harvests are expected to be favorable, below-average incomes from cash crop production will impede households’ ongoing recovery from past weather shocks and will prevent some poor households from meeting their essential non-food needs. Acute malnutrition levels are expected to decrease during this time, facilitated by improvements in household food consumption. 

Early warning of acute food insecurity outcomes requires forecasting months in advance to provide decision makers with sufficient time to budget, plan, and respond to expected humanitarian crises. However, due to the complex and variable factors that influence acute food insecurity, definitive predictions are impossible. Scenario Development is a methodology that allows FEWS NET to meet decision makers’ needs by developing a “most likely” scenario of the future. 

FEWS NET’s scenario development process applies the Disaster Risk Reduction framework and a livelihoods-based lens to assess acute food insecurity outcomes. A household’s risk of acute food insecurity depends not only on hazards (such as drought) but also the household’s vulnerability to these hazards (e.g., the level of dependence on rainfed crop production for food and income) and coping capacity (which considers both the household’s ability to cope with a given hazard and the use of negative coping strategies that harm future capacity). To evaluate these factors, FEWS NET bases this analysis on a strong foundational understanding of local livelihoods. FEWS NET’s scenario development process also accounts for the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework; the Four Dimensions of Food Security; and UNICEF’s Nutrition Conceptual Framework, and is closely aligned with the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analytical framework.

• How does FEWS NET analyze current acute food insecurity outcomes? FEWS NET assesses the extent to which households can meet their minimum caloric needs. This analysis converges evidence of current food security conditions with available direct evidence of household-level food consumption and livelihood change. FEWS NET also considers available area-level evidence of nutritional status and mortality, focusing on whether these reflect the physiological impacts of acute food insecurity. FEWS NET uses the globally recognized five-phase Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) scale to classify current acute food insecurity outcomes, and the analysis is IPC-compatible. In addition, FEWS NET applies the “!” symbol to designate areas where the mapped IPC Phase would likely be at least one IPC Phase worse without the effects of ongoing humanitarian food assistance.
• How does FEWS NET develop key assumptions underpinning the most likely scenario? A key step in FEWS NET’s scenario development process is the development of evidence-based assumptions about factors that affect food security. These include hazards and anomalies in food security conditions that will impact the evolution of household food and income during the projection period, as well as factors that may affect nutritional status. FEWS NET also develops assumptions about factors expected to behave normally. Together, these assumptions form the foundation of the “most likely” scenario.
• How does FEWS NET analyze projected acute food insecurity outcomes? Using the key assumptions that underpin the “most likely” scenario, FEWS NET projects acute food insecurity outcomes by assessing the evolution of households’ ability to meet their minimum caloric needs over time. FEWS NET converges expectations of the likely trajectory of household-level food consumption and livelihood change with area-level nutritional status and mortality. FEWS NET then classifies acute food insecurity outcomes using the IPC scale. Lastly, FEWS NET applies the “!” symbol to designate any areas where the mapped IPC Phase would likely be at least one IPC Phase worse without the effects of planned – and likely to be funded and delivered – food assistance.
• How does FEWS NET analyze humanitarian food assistance? Humanitarian food assistance – defined as emergency food assistance (in-kind, cash, or voucher) – may play a key role in mitigating the severity of acute food insecurity outcomes. FEWS NET analysts always incorporate available information on food assistance, with the caveat that such information can vary significantly across geographies and over time. In line with IPC protocols, FEWS NET uses the best available information to assess where food assistance is “significant” (defined by at least 25 percent of households in a given area receiving at least 25 percent of their caloric requirements through food assistance). In addition, FEWS NET conducts deeper analysis of the likely impacts of food assistance on the severity of outcomes, as detailed in FEWS NET’s guidance on Integrating Humanitarian Food Assistance into Scenario Development. 

While FEWS NET’s projections are considered the “most likely” scenario, there is always a degree of uncertainty in the assumptions that underpin the scenario. This means food security conditions and their impacts on acute food security may evolve differently than projected. FEWS NET issues monthly updates to its projections, but decision makers need advance information about this uncertainty and an explanation of why things may turn out differently than projected. As such, the final step in FEWS NET’s scenario development process is to briefly identify key events that would result in a credible alternative scenario and significantly change the projected outcomes. FEWS NET only considers scenarios that have a reasonable chance of occurrence.

National

Increased political unrest that leads to a prolonged imposition of curfews and movement restrictions. 

Likely impact on acute food insecurity outcomes: This event would have a low but reasonable chance of occurring in the medium term (February-May) if protestors perceive their demands have been unmet and movement resurges at high intensity. Government-enforced curfews and movement restrictions would need to be imposed for a protracted length of time to meaningfully impact acute food insecurity outcomes within this time period. They would likely have the greatest impact in Antananarivo, where previous protest activities were most intense. In addition to curfews and movement restrictions, prolonged disruptions to major ports (notably the chief seaport of Toamasina in the east) or airports would exacerbate supply disruptions and related price spikes. Increased unrest and political uncertainty would also likely exacerbate currency depreciation and suppress foreign investment, leading to even higher inflation. The tourism industry would also be negatively impacted, but this would occur outside of the peak season, limiting the magnitude of impacts on households whose livelihoods rely on tourism-related activities. 

Reduced trading hours and increases in the prices of essential food and non-food items would have the greatest impact on poor households’ incomes in urban centers, who are highly market dependent throughout the year and consume relatively more imported products. Central regions would also be most at risk of supply disruptions and associated price increases, given that supply flows to these regions typically must first pass through greater Antananarivo, though impacts on acute food insecurity would be greatest before the completion of main harvests when households are most market dependent. Area-level Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes would likely emerge in greater Antananarivo and, depending on timing, in some central areas. Increases in the share of the population in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) would be likely in many regions but would be unlikely to result in area-level phase changes.

Southern Madagascar

A direct cyclone strike on The Grand South or Grand Southeast.

Likely impact on acute food insecurity outcomes: A cyclone strike on the Grand South or Grand Southeast would further impede households’ ongoing recovery from past weather shocks and exacerbate an already precarious food security situation. Damage to key infrastructure would likely lead to supply disruptions and price spikes for essential food and non-food items during the time of year when households are most market dependent. A cyclone occurring prior to the completion of the 2025/26 harvest would have the most significant impact on acute food insecurity. Strong winds and excessive rainfall could cause substantial damage to crops and put the next cash crop harvest in the Grand Southeast at risk, given that it takes some plants several years to mature. This would likely lead to an increase in the proportion of households in Crisis (IPC Phase 3), which would not change area-level outcomes in much of the Grand South but could lead to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes in areas of the Grand South and Grand Southeast previously projected in Stressed (IPC Phase 2). Depending on timing and severity of damage, anticipated area-level improvements to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) between April and May could fail to materialize.