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Presence Country
Supply and Market Outlook

Madagascar Supply and Market Outlook

January 2018

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Between October and November 2017, a series of market assessments were conducted across Southern Africa by FEWS NET, in collaboration with key national and international partners. The findings from the assessment in Madagascar are key inputs to this report, which provides an update to the May 2017 Supply and Market Outlook report. 

  • Staple food production in Madagascar was below average in 2017. This was due to a combination of factors including Cyclone Enawo in the northeastern parts of the country, atypical dryness in many northern regions, which reduced crop yields, and relatively high cash crop prices (vanilla), which affected area planted.  Harvests in southern Madagascar, were near average this year, following consecutive years of drought. At the national level, rice and maize harvests were each approximately 20 percent below 2016 levels and 11 to 21 percent below the five-year average. Cassava harvest saw a modest recovery compared to 2016 but remained similarly below-average.

  • Rice imports continued to play an important role in staple food supply in 2017. In response to above-average domestic supply gaps, more than 400,000 metric tons (MT) of rice were imported during the first ten months of 2017, which is 78 percent above-average and double the amount imported in 2016. 

  • Staple food and cash crop prices are above-average. In main cities like Antananarivo, Toamasina and Antsirabe, local and imported rice prices have been particularly high since October 2017 peaking over 2,000 Ariary (MGA) per kilogram.  Average local harvest and the availability of imports contribute to relatively stable prices in structurally deficit southern Madagascar.

  • Forecasts predict weather for a more favorable harvest in MY 2017/18 than MY 2016/17. The intensity of the cyclone season, which began in November, will likely have a strong impact on food security outcomes and should continue to be monitored closely.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 34 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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