Malawi

• From October 2024 to January 2025, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food security outcomes are expected to persist in one district in southern Malawi (Mangochi) and two districts in central Malawi (Nkhotakota and Lilongwe), as humanitarian assistance will not start until December and January. However, the commencement of humanitarian food assistance in October in parts of southern and central Malawi is expected to improve food security outcomes from Crisis (IPC Phase 3) to Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!). 
• From February to May 2025, households in all El-Niño-affected districts in southern Malawi and the four districts in central Malawi will continue benefiting from the humanitarian food assistance program, maintaining Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes. Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes will persist in the rest of the central and northern districts as households start accessing food from their own April/May 2023/2024 harvests and market purchases. After the end of humanitarian food assistance distributions in March, food security outcomes in April to May will likely continue to be in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Minimal (IPC Phase 1) due to availability of 2025 own harvested crops. 
• Southern Malawi, particularly Nsanje district in the Lower Shire livelihood zone, remains the area of highest concern during the October 2024 to May 2025 period. Over half of the population in Nsanje district is experiencing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes due to the El Niño-induced drought which occurred before the area fully recovered from previous flooding and waterlogging in 2023. Humanitarian assistance over the next four to five months is expected to improve the food security situation, helping the district transition from Crisis (IPC Phase 3) to Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes in most of the district. 
• From October 2024 to March 2025, the government and its partners will be implementing a humanitarian food assistance program in the districts affected by the El-Niño induced drought in southern and central Malawi. The program, which is expected to last three to six months, is expected to improve food security outcomes to Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!). The humanitarian assistance is expected to reach more than 25 percent of the population and cover about 50 percent of their monthly kilocalorie requirements in several districts. FEWS NET estimates that the number of people who need humanitarian food assistance to prevent Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will peak at 4.0-4.99 million between January and March 2025, predominantly in southern Malawi. 

The analysis in this report is based on information available as of October 20, 2024.