Households across much of the country are experiencing favorable food availability and access since most people are still consuming own production and market demand remains low. Nonetheless, poor households that experienced production shortfalls during the main agriculture season in Central Karonga (CKA) are currently Stressed (IPC Phase 2), and affected households in the Middle Shire (MSH) and Lake Chirwa-Phalombe Plain (PHA) livelihood zone are in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).
According to forecasts provided by the Climate Prediction Center (CPC)-International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), the chance of El Nino has decreased to 60-65 percent. In contrast, the Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum indicates that normal to above-normal rainfall can be expected in Malawi during the main agriculture season, but advised countries to seek guidance and additional updates from the national meteorological services. The national forecast is expected to be released by the Malawi MET soon.
While the majority of poor households are projected to face Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes between October and December, areas that faced localized production shortfalls and limited income generating opportunities will experience Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes in CKA and a food security Crisis in MSH and PHA between October and December. The Malawi Vulnerability Assessment Committee found that 640,000 people will face food insecurity during the 2014/15 consumption season, however targeted assistance is not expected to begin until December.