Mozambique

• Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist from October 2024 to January 2025 in areas affected by El Niño-induced drought during the 2023/2024 agricultural season and areas impacted by conflict in the north. This is due to a combination of factors, including the onset of the lean season in October, below-average harvests in 2024, limited income-earning opportunities due to increased competition, and above-average staple food prices. These conditions will make it difficult for poor and very poor households with below-average purchasing power to access food. In Cabo Delgado, certain areas that receive regular humanitarian food assistance are likely to experience Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!).
• Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist through March 2025, particularly in the central region, due to the negative effects of the peak of the lean season. Staple food prices usually reach their peak during this time, and this year they are above average, making it even more difficult for local households, particularly the poor and very poor, to access food from markets. However, with the commencement of harvests in April and May 2025, there is potential for improvement in food access, leading to a reduction in acute food insecurity levels to Minimal (IPC Phase 1) or Stressed (IPC Phase 2). In conflict-affected areas of Cabo Delgado, the situation is expected to remain volatile, as sporadic attacks are likely to persist.
• The areas of highest concern include the semi-arid areas in the country's central region, which are remote areas with limited access to markets, and the conflict-affected areas in the southeast of Cabo Delgado. The coastal and low-lying areas are at risk of flooding, particularly from tropical storms 
• In September 2024, Food Security Cluster (FSC) partners provided food assistance to about 276,200 people in Cabo Delgado and Nampula, meeting 40 percent of their monthly caloric needs. This support reached 30 percent of the targeted population in the 2024 Humanitarian Response Plan, with nearly 60 percent delivered as in-kind aid and around 40 percent as cash or vouchers. In the Macomia district, humanitarian food assistance was resumed in October after being suspended since May 2024 due to security concerns. FSC partners plan to assist 268,850 beneficiaries with agricultural inputs in preparation for the 2024/2025 agricultural season, while 4,865 individuals will receive food from Oxfam and Caritas in October and November. As of October, available resources will enable humanitarian food assistance for approximately 350,000 people and provide livelihood support for around 165,000 people during the peak of the upcoming lean season from November 2024 to March 2025. The overall goal is to assist 1.1 million individuals impacted by El Niño. 

The analysis in this report is based on information available as of October 25, 2024.