Supply and Market Outlook

Southern Africa Regional Supply and Market Outlook Update

December 2015

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance

This report provides a summary of changes to regional maize availability estimates and markets in Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia, and Zimbabwe (countries monitored by FEWS NET in southern Africa) as well as South Africa, Botswana, Namibia, and Swaziland. It updates FEWS NET’s Regional Maize Supply and Market Outlook Report published in August 2015.

Key Messages

  • Based on updated 2015/16 production, opening stock, consumption, and strategic reserve figures, the regional maize balance for the 2015/16 marketing year is now estimated to be a deficit of 500,000 MT to 600,000 MT. On average, the region typically has an aggregate maize surplus of nearly 3,000,000 MT, making this year’s shortage a significant anomaly. Zimbabwe’s maize deficit remains the largest in the region, followed by Malawi, and Mozambique.

  • With less than 30 percent of surplus supplies remaining in Zambia, the main source of imports for Zimbabwe and Malawi, Zimbabwe and Malawi are expected to have maize shortages until the beginning of the next harvest (April 2016).

  • Prices will remain well above average across the region, especially in Malawi and South Africa.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 34 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.