Seasonal Monitor

Rainfall forecast for the 2015/16 agricultural season, issue #6

April 2016

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Partners: 
SADC

Key Messages

  • The first half of February was characterized by very dry conditions in the southern half of the region, further reducing harvest expectations.

  • Very high rainfall was received between late February and mid-March in most parts of the region. The rainfall helped to increase water supply, and may improve pasture conditions. However, the rains were generally too late to improve crops that had succumbed to the hot, dry conditions in many areas.

  • Below normal rains were received in much of Tanzania, northern Malawi and northern Mozambique between late February and mid-March. Despite the dry conditions, reports indicate that good soil moisture build-up prior to the dryness allowed crops in some of these areas to survive the dry spell, and there are still good production prospects in some northeastern parts of the region.

  • A reduction in the rains in most parts of the region is expected, with the rainfall season typically ending by late-March to mid-April in most areas.

About this Report

The seasonal monitor, produced by the FEWS NET USGS regional scientist and FEWS NET Regional Technical Manager, updates rainfall totals, the impact on production, and the short-term forecast. It is produced every 20 days during the production season. Find more remote sensing information here.

 

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 34 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.