Famine Early Warning Systems Network

Above-average national maize and other crop harvests have improved food availability and access across the country. Poor households in various parts of the country are expected to realize enough crops to provide up to 3-4 months of food stocks. From June through September, Minimum (IPC Phase 1) food security outcomes are expected in high cereal-producing areas, as well as some areas in cereal-deficit production areas. However, some areas in the cereal-deficit southern and marginal north are expected to experience Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes. 

From October through January, Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food security outcomes are expected to continue in most areas in the surplus-producing north as households consume own-produced stock, and earn income from crop sales and labor opportunities. During these months, some areas in the cereal-deficit southern and marginal north will also continue to experience Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are also expected in some areas and humanitarian assistance will be needed for poor households that have exhausted their food stocks, will be facing limited livelihood options, and will likely experience food gaps. 

Domestic remittance flows are expected to continue to be below average due to the current macroeconomic situation. Potential incomes from off-farm labor, self-employment, petty trading, and other activities will remain constrained from June to January due to cash shortages. The start of the 2017-18 rainy season across the southern Africa region is likely to be normal and average rainfall is expected for the next season. However, these normal rainfall conditions will only marginally improve livelihood options for rural and urban households with the national cash shortages expected to continue during the outlook period.