Famine Early Warning Systems Network

In northeast Nigeria, the improvement of security conditions favors an increasing return of displaced persons and refugees, as well as improvement in trade flows. Humanitarian assistance has also increased in volume, but is still insufficient to meet the needs of many affected populations due to limited funding. For example, many populations in Borno, Yobe and Adamawa States are still affected by acute food insecurity of Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and increased levels of acute malnutrition and excess mortality. Less accessible areas, particularly in Borno State, could face similar or worse conditions and continue to face a high risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) in 2017.

In several areas of the region, food prices have begun to seasonally rise as household stocks decline and market demand increases. In Niger, prices for millet and sorghum are 27-30 percent higher than average in the Zinder, Nguigmi, and Maradi markets due to the decline in flows from Nigeria and the increase in local demand, though the agricultural season was average. In Nigeria the depreciation of the Naira against the US Dollar maintains the widespread price increases, especially in conflict areas where prices are about 150 percent higher than in 2015. However, the majority of West Africa will remain in Minimal (IPC Phase 1) until September 2017, due to above average 2016/17 production, sufficient imports of rice and wheat, and well supplied markets, combined with usual coping strategies. 

Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity is observed in: the west of the agropastoral zone and in the northern portion of the Senegal River Valley in Mauritania due to low rainfed agricultural production and decline in income from livestock; In the northern regions of the Western Sahel, the Gao River area, Timbuktu and parts of the Niger Delta in Mali; the pastoral zone and some of the agropastoral zone of Niger due to pastoral production deficits over two years and the general decline in demand for livestock in Niger and Burkina Faso; and the Sahel of Burkina Faso due to low harvests.

Crisis (IPC Phase 3) will continue in the Diffa Region of Niger and the in Lake Chad Region until September as the security crisis persists and distrupts principle livelihoods activities and the normal functioning of markets which are experiencing substantial increases in food prices. Food insecurity may be more severe for the poor in inaccessible areas of Niger. 

The 2017/18 agricultural season is progressing satisfactorily in the Sahelian and Sudanian Zones with a wet to normal season forecast, with the exception of parts of the western Gulf of Guinea (Guinea, Liberia, Cote d’Ivoire) where cumulative rainfall is so far below average. Also, reports of Fall Army Worm (Spodoptera frugiperda) in some countries in the region (Nigeria, Ghana, Togo, Benin, Niger) are disconcerting for the otherwise good predicted performance for this season.