In northern agropastoral areas, below-average harvests due to poor rainfall distribution and attacks of grain-eating birds will result in an early exhaustion of staple food stocks as early as February. Poor households’ consumption will be fulfilled through market purchases, though at a time of unfavorable terms of trade for staple foods. As a result, poor households will be in Stress (IPC Phase 2) between January and March 2015.
Cereal prices (millet and sorghum) are following typical seasonal trends, having decreased slightly since the peak of the lean season in September. However, in agropastoral areas of the north, prices remain 18 to 26 percent above the five-year average. These elevated price levels could be maintained through March as household demand grows with the exhaustion of food stocks.
Sale of animals are currently allowing households to purchase and stock staple foods from the market. Despite increases in livestock prices observed since October, prices for small ruminants remain near last year’s level and the five-year average, due to international demand (Ghana, Cote d’Ivoire, Togo) and good animal body conditions.