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Remotely Monitored Country
Remote Monitoring Report

Growing numbers of DPs with the flare up in the civil conflict

December 2017

December 2017 - January 2018

Central African Republic phase 3

February - May 2018

Central African Republic phase 3

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • The security situation in the Central African Republic is a continuing source of concern, with numerous reports of security incidents since the beginning of the New Year. According to the UNOCHA, there were 200,000 newly registered IDPs in Haut Mbomou, Mbomou, Ouham Pende, Ouaka, and Nana-Gribizi between February and December 2017, bringing the total number of internally displaced persons to 600,000 as of November and increasing the size of the displaced population by 50 percent in 2017. Most of these households remain dependent on food assistance to meet their food needs.

  • In spite of the good rainy season, the country is expecting very little crop production for the fourth consecutive year due to the ongoing conflict, which is limiting available crop-growing areas. This will deplete household food stocks prematurely, increase market dependence, and limit food access. It will also limit business activities such as the sale of surplus crops and petty trading opportunities.

  • The persistent conflict is continuing to steadily displace civilian populations in affected areas (Haut Mbomou, Mbomou, Ouaka, Ouham Pende, and Nana-Gribizi). According to the UNOCHA, this is undercutting the sources of income and limiting the food access of approximately 600,000 people, including DPs, returnees, poor resident populations, and host households in these areas, which will keep them in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food security outcomes through at least May 2018.

AREA

CURRENT ANOMALIES

        PROJECTED ANOMALIES

Conflict areas

 

 

  • Sharp rise in the prices of imported foods and livestock
  • Limited access to fields and seeds, fewer employment opportunities, lack of access to animal traction
  • Atypically low household food stocks
  • Lower than average incomes
  • Continuing displacements triggered by the ongoing conflict
  • Lower market supplies in conflict areas
  • Steady rise in the prices of imported foods
  • Smaller areas planted in crops and reduction in crop production for 2017-2018 and in income from farm labor

 

 

 

PROJECTED OUTLOOK THROUGH MAY 2018

Despite signs of a relative lull in the escalating violence in Bangui, armed groups in Haut Mbomou, Mbomou, Ouaka, Ouham Pende, and Nana-Gribizi continue to battle each other over sociopolitical issues, for funding, and for control of livestock and raw materials such as gold and diamonds. This violence has displaced approximately 600,000 people according to the latest report by the UNOCHA as of November 30, 2017. It is also impeding the smooth operation of government, the resumption of educational activities, the restoration of health services, and local celebrations in affected areas. Most DPs in Central and Southeastern areas of the country are counting on humanitarian assistance to meet their basic needs. However, ethnic tensions and poor road conditions are interfering with the shipment of this assistance, leading to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food security outcomes for these populations. Other DPs in the Northwest and the Southwest are meeting Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) food security outcomes, where the service areas of humanitarian organizations are more secure, making humanitarian assistance accessible to most households.

The persistent civil security problems and their effects on crop production for the last four years are continuing to severely disrupt seasonal activities such as commerce and trade in crops and livestock. Likewise, other sources of income such as farm labor, petty trade, hunting and fishing, casual labor, artisanal activities, and self-employment are generating well-below-average levels of income. All this is contributing to the sharp reduction in household income and purchasing power in affected areas, limiting food access.

According to ground reports, the deadly clashes between armed groups and the erection of informal road blocks are continuing to displace thousands of people, cause losses of human lives, and limit access to humanitarian assistance. In addition, shortages of food stocks, the poor condition of roadways, security incidents on major roads, logistics problems, dysfunctional basic social structures, and cuts in funding are only making matters worse. This is limiting the response capacity of the government and its partners to come to the aid of vulnerable population groups. For example, the food assistance furnished by the WFP covered only 400,000 people in 2017, compared with 700,000 in 2016.

The effects of the conflict on their sources of income and food access will keep DPs, returnees, poor resident populations, and host households in affected areas of Haut Mbomou, Mbomou, Ouaka, Ouham Pende, and Nana-Gribizi currently in the Crisis (IPC Phase 3) stage of food insecurity in this same situation through at least May 2018. Households in these areas will continue to resort to crisis strategies such as begging and the consumption of wild plant foods.

The food assistance furnished to DPs and poor residents of Northwestern and Southwestern areas of the country will help maintain Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) food security outcomes through at least May 2018.

About Remote Monitoring

In remote monitoring, a coordinator typically works from a nearby regional office. Relying on partners for data, the coordinator uses scenario development to conduct analysis and produce monthly reports. As less data may be available, remote monitoring reports may have less detail than those from countries with FEWS NET offices. Learn more about our work here.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 34 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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