New harvests improve food security across Chad

• Harvests are generally average to above average, but vary widely from one region to another. Production deficits have been reported in some departments of the regions of Wadi Fira (Arada), Guera (Melfi, Abtouyour, and Mangalmé), Batha Est (Oum Hadjer), Kanem, and Bahr El Ghazel (BEG).

• Markets are better supplied with newly harvested crops than during the lean season (June-September). Prices are beginning to fall from September levels, improving access to cereals.

• Starting in October, newly harvested crops have improved the food security of poor households in the regions of Wadi Fira and Bahr El Ghazel. The availability of newly harvested crops, combined with milk in certain places will allow households to diversify their food sources from October to December 2014. During this period, the entire country will face Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity. 

• In Kanem, Batha Est, Grande Sido, Guera, Wadi Fira and Bahr El Ghazel, cereal stocks levels will begin to be exhausted in February, as in a normal year. Beginning in January/February and March, very poor and poor households will become market dependent and will experience Stress (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity conditions until June. This will cause them to reduce their food consumption to minimally adequate levels. As a result, they will face Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) food security outcomes from July to September. 

Current situation

Rainy season

In almost all southern areas of the country, the 2014/2015 rainy season will be better than both last year and an average year. While the rains are currently slowing, the rainy season is still ongoing. Despite the poor spatial and temporal distribution of rains this growing season, continued rainfall during the month of October allowed certain crops such as maize, millet, and sorghum to fully mature. In the Sahelian zone, the rainy season began later than usual and ended in late September in most areas. In a normal year, the rains usually continue through the first dekad (ten days) of October. However, the quantity of rainfall in early October in the region of Wadi Fira (Amzoer and Guereda) encouraged crop growth and allowed most crops to fully mature. Some areas such as Dababa, Loug Chari, Haraze Al Biar, and Dagana (Hadjer Lamis) reported significant rainfall in the last dekad of September and early October, which should allow plants whose growth cycle had been delayed to fully mature. Despite the poor distribution of rainfall in this part of the country, the 2014/2015 rainy season was better on the whole than in both 2013/2014 and an average year.

Water availability

Water availability is better than both last year and average years. The water level in the Chari River in N’Djamena on August 31, 2014 was 384 cm, slightly higher than on the same date in 2013 (281 cm). Water reserves in intermittent streams (wadis) and other areas in the Sahelian zone (Kanem and Barh El Gazel) should be sufficient to meet animal watering needs through December 2014, as in a normal year.

Locust situation

On the whole, the locust situation is calm, which should allow crops to fully mature without much risk. Insects (caterpillars and butterflies) that feed on cotton and sesame capsules have been reported in the Kélo Region, which is normal. Pest treatments have brought the situation under control.

Agricultural conditions

Agricultural conditions are relatively satisfactory, as most crops are already reaching maturity. Cereal and groundnut harvests are ongoing in the Sudanian zone, where overall production is expected to be above average. In multiple zones, the size of the area planted in crops was greater than last year. For example, in Moyen Chari, an estimated 530,989 hectares were planted, up from 415,511 hectares last year. The increase in the area planted in crops was made possible by the use of government-subsidized tractors. However, rice crops (which require more water) experienced problems due to insufficient rainfall, as few plots of land are flooded. This could cause production levels to fall in Moyen Chari. Off-season crops are already being placed in nursery beds in certain areas, as in a normal year.

Status of pastoral resources

Pasture and water resources are still available in all agro-pastoral and transhumant livestock livelihood zones. Animals in these zones have reached their maximum body condition, approximately equal to that of a normal year. Less pasture was available in host areas for refugees and returnees due to pressure from an increased concentration of animals. The presence of approximately 2,000 head of cattle arriving with pastoralists from the CAR could create conflict in the area during the harvest period.

Nutritional situation

The nutritional situation is calm in all zones. Malaria and acute respiratory infections are the primary diseases seen during this period, but they are currently in line with normal trends. From January to August 2014, malnutrition treatment centers admitted and treated approximately 103,682 children with SAM (severe acute malnutrition). The region of Kanem reported the highest share of children with SAM during the first 8 months of the year, with 16 percent of admissions from January to August 2014, followed by N’Djamena (12 percent) and Barh El Ghazel (9 percent) (Figure 1).

Population movements

With the closing of the borders with Nigeria and Libya due to insecurity related to various conflicts, there have been no significant population movements, except for in the region of Lake Chad, which has received people fleeing Boko Haram in Nigeria (approximately 1,116 people during the month of August). People continue to flow into the region, but in small waves. According to OCHA, the arrival of new people fleeing violence in the Central African Republic (CAR) has been sporadic since August. On September 8, a group of 67 people arrived in Mbitoye from Béti, Cameroon in a very weakened physical state.

Household cereal stocks

Households are beginning to replenish their cereal stocks, allowing most of them to become less dependent on market purchasing.

Markets

Markets in the Sudanian zone currently have abundant supplies, particularly of groundnuts and maize, but also to a lesser extentof sorghum and millet from ongoing local harvests. The market in the capital, N’Djamena, is currently stocked with pearl millet and sorghum from Bousso, Bailli, and Deli (Sud), with prices currently remaining stable. Imported rice is coming primarily from Malaysia, Vietnam, and Cameroon. A significant quantity of maize is exported to neighboring Cameroon via the Léré-Binder roadway. Cereal prices are down due to abundant market supply, as cereal supplies in markets in the Sahelian part of the country are at typical pre-harvest levels. However, prices in Sila and Wadi Fira are more than 8 percent higher than the same period last year due to high demand from transhumant pastoralists, particularly for sorghum. The availability of crops from neighboring areas (Birtawil, Hadjar-Hadid, Mata, Abkhouta, etc.) that have already begun their harvests has kept prices in Ouaddai from rising significantly.  

Food security situation

The arrival of newly harvested crops on the market has helped improve the food security situation in all zones monitored, reflecting improved food availability and adequate market supplies. Sorghum, maize, groundnuts, and earth peas, for example, are being harvested in the southern part of the country and most of the Sahelian zone. The abundance of these crops on the markets combined with the availability of milk has helped lower prices since October and is improving household food stocks and consumption levels. Poor households are currently able to meet their basic food and non-food needs, and all livelihood zones are experiencing Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity.

Assumptions

The most likely food security scenario for October 2014 through March 2015 is based on the following national-level assumptions:

• Rainy season: The rainy season will continue through the end of October in much of southern Chad, allowing late-planted crops (those planted in August) to fully mature.
• Water availability: Current water levels in ponds and various watering holes should provide sufficient water for livestock until at least December.
• Crop production: Irrespective of zone, crop production should be average to slightly above average throughout the country (3 to 3.5 million metric tonnes expected) despite the poor spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall, due to larger than usual area planted in crops. As a result, production should be sufficient to meet household foods needs until at least February/March 2015.
• Off-season crop production: Crops are currently being placed in nursery beds in all production zones. Crop growth and harvesting should take place as in a normal year, with flooding reported in production zones such as Salamat and Sila.
• Pastoral conditions: Average pasture levels should allow pastoralists to feed their animals without difficulty, at least until December. On the whole, livestock body conditions should be above average. As usual, north/south herd movements by transhumant households will start up in November-December. Milk availability is adequate and will be accessible to very poor and poor households in transhumant transit zones and pastoral zones until December. Beginning in January, pasture levels will fall and livestock will gradually move further away from villages, reducing access to dairy products.
• Markets and prices: Generally average cereal production levels and no expected shortages or disruptions will keep markets adequately supplied. Roads will also be easier to access after the rainy season, facilitating trade flows between different zones and regions. This situation will be reinforced by the ONASA's (National Food Security Agency’s) extra reserves from 2013 and the harvest of off-season crops, including berbéré (flood-recession sorghum), which is expected to occur in January-March in certain zones, as in a typical year. However, cereal demand will be down as households will primarily consume their own crops from October to December. Livestock prices should stabilize after the Tabaski holiday in October and will rise again in December with the approach of the year-end holiday season. Livestock supplies will remain stable in the Sudanian zone due to the presence of pastoralists and their herds from the CAR and the return of transhumant livestock to the zone.
• Closure of the border with Libya: The economic effects of the halt to livestock exports due to the border closure will continue to be felt, particularly in the regions of BET, Kanem, and Bahr El Ghazel, which depend largely on trade with neighboring Libya.
• Closure of the border with Nigeria: The recent attacks on Chadian pastoralists in August 2014 and the theft of their livestock did nothing to improve the ongoing situation, which is expected to continue over the coming months, preventing normally significant trade flows between the two countries from resuming.
• Income and food sources: Income and food sources should behave as in normal years, particularly in October-December (farm labor, livestock sales, construction work, cereal and market garden crop sales, egg and poultry sales, petty trade, wild plant foods, sales of grass woven products/straw mats/crafts, wood, etc.). Market garden crop production in certain zones will also allow poor households (and market gardeners) to diversify their food sources and increase their income.

Most likely food security outcomes

The first part of the scenario (October-December) coinciding with the post-harvest period will be characterized by a relatively calm food security situation in all areas of the country. With the availability of newly harvested crops, households will depend on their own production and will not have to resort to any atypical coping strategies. The availability of cereals, market garden crops, milk, and wild foods combined with lower cereal prices during this period will improve poor households' access to food. Above-average availability of market garden crops due to good levels of rainfall will help increase household income and improve food security. The nutritional situation will also improve thanks to above-average food availability. The entire country will therefore experience Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity.

In certain regions in the Sahelian zone (Kanem, Bahr El Ghazel, Batha Est, Nord Guera, and Wadi Fira) and the region of Grande Sido in the Sudanian zone, food stock levels will begin falling in February/March due to localized cereal production deficits in some departments in these regions, making households much more dependent on market purchasing. Increased demand will affect cereal prices during this period, preventing very poor and poor households from easily accessing food. Poor households will be forced to increase the use of their usual coping strategies (gathering of wild plant foods, crafts, etc.) to atypical levels to fill the gap. However, these strategies will not fully compensate for the effects that cereal shortages and high prices will have on poor households. Households in the regions of Kanem, Bahr El Ghazel, Batha Est, Grande Sido, Nord Guera, and Wadi Fira will therefore spend less on essential non-food items and will be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) from January to March.

For more information on the analysis for the areas of concern, please download the full report.